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Premier League 2026-27

The xG table

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a side creates and allows. Here's the season as the chances say it should have gone: who's riding their luck, who deserves more, and who's finishing far better or worse than their chances.

The deserved table 60 matches

#ClubPxPtsPtsLuckRealxGGFxGAGA
1Arsenal612.415 +2.62 10.8104.75
2Man City610.718 +7.31 11.8168.35
3Nottingham Forest610.45 -5.415 10.957.48
4Brighton69.913 +3.13 13.0189.75
5Liverpool69.49 -0.49 9.377.47
6Brentford69.110 +0.94 11.3128.76
7Man Utd69.06 -3.013 11.198.59
8Everton68.810 +1.25 8.888.15
9Bournemouth68.53 -5.518 8.278.113
10Sunderland68.44 -4.417 10.6610.112
11Leeds United67.99 +1.17 8.689.05
12Ipswich Town67.99 +1.110 8.9911.212
13Tottenham67.83 -4.819 6.638.79
14Fulham67.72 -5.720 9.6610.310
15Chelsea67.010 +3.06 8.51510.613
16Aston Villa66.95 -1.916 6.9610.311
17Hull City66.69 +2.48 6.789.16
18Crystal Palace66.17 +0.912 8.7912.612
19Newcastle66.18 +1.911 7.21010.713
20Coventry City65.86 +0.214 6.4510.511

xPts: each match's expected goals turned into the chance of a win and a draw, worth 3 and 1, added up. Luck: real points minus xPts (red = more points than the chances deserved, green = fewer). Real: actual league position.

Best finishers goals above xG

  1. Cherki (Man City): 4 goals from 1.3 xG, +2.7
  2. João Pedro (Chelsea): 5 goals from 2.8 xG, +2.2
  3. Rogers (Chelsea): 4 goals from 1.9 xG, +2.1
  4. Tavernier (Bournemouth): 3 goals from 1.7 xG, +1.3
  5. Haaland (Man City): 6 goals from 4.8 xG, +1.2
  6. Schade (Brentford): 3 goals from 1.9 xG, +1.1
  7. Groß (Brighton): 3 goals from 2.0 xG, +1.0
  8. N.Jackson (Aston Villa): 2 goals from 1.1 xG, +0.9
  9. Willock (Newcastle): 2 goals from 1.1 xG, +0.9
  10. Palmer (Chelsea): 2 goals from 1.3 xG, +0.7

Wasteful goals below xG

  1. Thiago (Brentford): 1 goals from 3.2 xG, -2.2
  2. Gonzalo (Fulham): 1 goals from 3.0 xG, -2.0
  3. Foden (Man City): 0 goals from 1.6 xG, -1.6
  4. Wissa (Newcastle): 1 goals from 2.5 xG, -1.5
  5. Barry (Everton): 3 goals from 4.4 xG, -1.4
  6. Enciso (Ipswich Town): 0 goals from 1.3 xG, -1.3
  7. Awoniyi (Coventry City): 0 goals from 1.3 xG, -1.3
  8. Silva (Bournemouth): 0 goals from 1.3 xG, -1.3
  9. McBurnie (Hull City): 0 goals from 1.2 xG, -1.2
  10. Wirtz (Liverpool): 0 goals from 1.2 xG, -1.2

Most expected goals

PlayerxGGoalsxG/90
Haaland Man City4.860.82
Barry Everton4.430.79
Saka Arsenal3.630.65
Isak Liverpool3.540.77
Mbeumo Man Utd3.330.55
Thiago Brentford3.210.54
Calvert-Lewin Leeds United3.020.53
Gonzalo Fulham3.010.53
Brobbey Sunderland2.930.66
João Pedro Chelsea2.850.58
B.Fernandes Man Utd2.630.43
Wissa Newcastle2.510.43
E.Le Fée Sunderland2.110.36
Emersonn Ipswich Town2.120.48
Groß Brighton2.030.34

Most expected assists

PlayerxAAssists
Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest1.92
Gakpo Liverpool1.73
Cherki Man City1.72
Enciso Ipswich Town1.62
E.Le Fée Sunderland1.61
Semenyo Man City1.53
B.Fernandes Man Utd1.51
Ødegaard Arsenal1.40
Iwobi Fulham1.40
Xhaka Sunderland1.41

What is xG?

Expected goals (xG) give every shot a value between 0 and 1: the chance a shot like it, from that spot and situation, is scored. Add them up and you get how many goals a side's chances were worth. Over a season, sides tend to drift back towards their xG, which is why a club well above its expected points is often heading for a correction. Expected assists (xA) do the same for the pass before a shot.

Expected goals data is Opta's, via Fantasy Premier League, kept match by match by My Football Facts. Updated twice a day. MFF's FPL picks use the same numbers.

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