How MFF projects points
MFF's match model works out how many goals each side should score in every fixture, from the goals scored and conceded across the past year, recent games counting most. We turn that into FPL points: each player's share of the club's expected goals and assists this season, the chance of a clean sheet, goals conceded and a goalkeeper's saves, all times the player's chance of playing. That chance comes from FPL's own availability flag and how often the player has started. Bonus points and defensive contributions are left out, so treat the numbers as a guide, not a promise.
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