Nottingham Forest host Arsenal at The City Ground on Sunday 18 October 2026 (kick-off 16:30) in Premier League gameweek 7, with the two sides at very different ends of the early table.
Two sides, two starts
Arsenal are second on 15 points from six games, with five wins and a goal difference of +5. Only Man City are ahead of them, on 18 points after six wins from six.
Forest are 15th on 5 points, with one win and a goal difference of -3. Fulham, bottom in 20th, have 2 points.
Form tells a similar story. Forest have won once, drawn twice and lost twice in their last five. They drew 2-2 at Liverpool and 0-0 with Tottenham, won 2-1 at Aston Villa, and lost 1-0 to Coventry City and 3-1 at Crystal Palace.
Arsenal have won four of their last five. They beat Aston Villa 1-0, Chelsea 2-1, Sunderland 2-0 and Leeds United 2-1. The exception was a 3-0 defeat at Brighton.
The numbers that matter
Arsenal average 1.67 goals per game and concede 0.83, which gives them 2.5 points per game and three clean sheets. Forest average 0.83 goals and concede 1.33, with 0.83 points per game and one clean sheet. Forest have also collected 14 yellow cards to Arsenal's 8.
Expected goals data via Fantasy Premier League, which measures the quality of chances created and conceded, suggests Forest's attack is better than their return. Both teams create 1.81 xG per game. At the other end, Forest allow 1.23 xG per game and Arsenal 0.78.
Bukayo Saka leads Arsenal's expected goals with 3.63 xG and three goals in 506 minutes. He is also the club's first-choice penalty taker, per FPL. Martin Ødegaard has 1.9 xG and two goals, and Kai Havertz has 1.81 xG and two goals.
For Forest, Ndoye has 1.94 xG and two goals in 387 minutes, and Delap has 1.9 xG and one goal. Gibbs-White has 1.65 xG and one goal, plus two assists from 1.87 expected assists. FPL lists him as Forest's first-choice penalty taker.
On availability, FPL lists Forest's Milenković as doubtful with a knee injury (75% chance of playing). It lists Savona (knee) and Igor Jesus (calf) as injured, with no return date. For Arsenal, FPL lists Saliba as injured with a back problem and no return date. It lists Hincapie (ankle) and Zubimendi (unspecified) as doubtful, each with a 75% chance of playing.
Head to head
Arsenal have won four of the last six meetings, and the other two were draws. Forest have not won any of them.
The most recent was a 0-0 draw at The City Ground on 17 January 2026. Before that, Arsenal won 3-0 at home in September 2025. Forest have failed to score in each of the last four meetings. Their last goal against Arsenal came in a 2-1 defeat on 30 January 2024.
MFF prediction
MFF's match model predicts a 1-0 win for Arsenal. It gives the visitors a 46% chance of winning, with 28% for a draw and 27% for a Forest win.