Newcastle host Aston Villa at St. James' Park on Saturday 17 October 2026 (kick-off 17:30) in gameweek 7 of the Premier League. Neither side has made the start it wanted, but the home team has the better numbers.
Where they stand
Newcastle are 11th after six games, with two wins, eight points and a goal difference of minus three. Villa are 16th with one win, five points and a goal difference of minus five. Man City lead the table with six wins from six, while Fulham are bottom on two points.
Newcastle average 1.33 points per game this season, against 0.83 for Villa.
Form and the numbers
Newcastle's last five league games have swung sharply. They won 2-0 at Tottenham and beat Hull City 2-1, but they also lost 4-1 at Leeds United and 4-1 at Coventry City, and drew 2-2 with Bournemouth.
Villa have won once in their last five, 3-2 at Tottenham. They drew 2-2 with Brentford and 0-0 at Hull City, and lost 2-1 to Nottingham Forest and 1-0 to Arsenal.
Newcastle score more, averaging 1.67 goals per game to Villa's 1.00. Both defences are leaking: Newcastle concede 2.17 per game and Villa 1.83. Each side has kept one clean sheet. Newcastle have collected 13 yellow cards and Villa 12.
Expected goals data via Fantasy Premier League, which measures the quality of chances created, shows two evenly matched teams. Newcastle average 1.19 xG for and 1.78 against per game; Villa are at 1.15 for and 1.72 against.
Among the individuals, Newcastle's Wissa leads the way on 2.5 xG, with one goal in 518 minutes. Willock has two goals from 1.12 xG, and Barnes has three assists. For Villa, McGinn tops the list on 1.64 xG with one goal, while Jackson has scored twice from 1.1 xG. FPL lists Osula as Newcastle's first-choice penalty taker and Buendía as Villa's.
Availability
FPL lists Newcastle's Livramento as doubtful with a 50% chance of playing, and Touré as doubtful at 75%. It has Jaouen, Elanga and J.Ramsey as injured. For Villa, FPL lists Madjo as doubtful at 50% and George Hemmings as doubtful with a knee problem, 75% chance of playing. Maatsen, Ruggeri and Onana are listed as injured.
Head to head
Of the last six meetings, Newcastle have won three, Villa two and one was drawn. Villa won the most recent, 2-0 at St. James' Park on 25 January 2026. Before that came a 0-0 draw at Villa Park in August 2025 and a 4-1 Villa win in April 2025. Newcastle's best result in the run was a 5-1 home win in August 2023.
MFF prediction
MFF's match model predicts a 2-1 Newcastle win. It gives the home side a 44% chance of victory, the draw 23% and an Aston Villa win 34%.