Man Utd host Aston Villa at Old Trafford on Sunday 8 November 2026 (kick-off 16:30) in gameweek 10 of the Premier League. The home side are 17th and badly need points. Villa are 10th.
Form and the table
United have 7 points from nine games, with one win and a goal difference of -5. That works out at 0.78 points per game. They have drawn three and lost two of their last five, drawing 1-1 at Fulham, Tottenham and Leeds United, and losing 3-0 at home to Bournemouth and 2-0 at Chelsea.
Villa have 12 points from nine, with three wins and a goal difference of -3, or 1.33 points per game. They are unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws. The wins came against Tottenham (3-2), Newcastle (1-0) and Man City (2-1), and they drew 2-2 with Brentford and 1-1 with Fulham.
What the numbers say
Both sides average 1.11 goals per game. The gap is at the back. United concede 1.67 per game and have no clean sheets this season. Villa concede 1.44 and have two clean sheets.
Expected goals data via Fantasy Premier League, which measures the quality of chances created, suggests United have been unlucky in attack. They average 1.6 xG per game, well above their actual output, while Villa average 1.21. At the other end, United's xG against is 1.67 per game and Villa's is 1.69.
Mbeumo leads United's xG with 4.24 and has scored four goals. Fernandes has three goals from 2.95 xG. For Villa, Jackson has five goals from 2.16 xG, so he has scored well above the quality of his chances. McGinn has 2.43 xG but one goal.
Discipline could matter. United have 21 yellow cards this season and Villa have 19.
Availability
Going by MFF's card count, Lisandro Martínez is due to serve a one-match ban after being sent off for two bookings. Harry Maguire is one booking from a ban, with four league bookings. Villa's Matty Cash is due to serve a one-match ban after five league bookings.
FPL lists Šeško (shin), Rashford (hip), Ugarte (knee), Baleba (hamstring) and Shaw (unspecified injury) as out for United, each with a 0% chance of playing. It lists Dorgu as doubtful with a hamstring problem, 75% chance of playing. For Villa, FPL lists Ruggeri and Onana as out, and Wan-Bissaka as doubtful with a hamstring problem, 50% chance of playing.
Head-to-head and prediction
United have the better recent record in this fixture. In the last six meetings they have four wins, Villa have one and one game was drawn. United won 3-1 at Old Trafford in March 2026, but Villa won 2-1 at home in December 2025.
MFF's match model predicts a 2-1 win for Man Utd. It gives the home side a 45% chance, the draw 24% and an away win 31%.
Add MFF as a preferred source on GoogleSee our stats first in Google's Top Stories and AI answers