Leeds United host Man Utd at Elland Road on Sunday 18 October 2026 (kick-off 14:00) in gameweek 7 of the Premier League, with the home side sitting well above their visitors.
Leeds are seventh with 9 points from six games and a goal difference of +3. Man Utd are 13th with 6 points and a goal difference of 0. Man City lead the table with six wins from six and 18 points.
Form and season numbers
Leeds have drawn three of their last five league games: 1-1 against Brentford, 1-1 at Brighton and 0-0 against Crystal Palace. In between came a 4-1 win over Newcastle and a 1-2 defeat at Arsenal.
Man Utd have also drawn three of their last five: 2-2 at Everton, 1-1 at Fulham and 1-1 against Tottenham. They beat Ipswich Town 5-2 but lost 0-1 to Man City.
The season averages favour Leeds at the back. They score 1.33 goals a game and concede 0.83, with two clean sheets. United score 1.5 and concede 1.5, and have yet to keep a clean sheet. That leaves Leeds averaging 1.5 points a game against United's 1. Leeds have 11 yellow cards this season and United 10.
What the chance data says
Expected goals data via Fantasy Premier League, which measures the quality of chances created, gives United the edge going forward. They average 1.85 xG per game and concede 1.42. Leeds average 1.43 xG for and 1.5 against.
United's main threats are Mbeumo, on 3.31 xG and 3 goals, and Bruno Fernandes, on 2.58 xG and 3 goals. FPL lists Fernandes as United's first-choice penalty taker. For Leeds, Calvert-Lewin leads on 3 xG with 2 goals, and is their first-choice penalty taker. Bogle has 2 goals from 1.49 xG.
On availability, FPL lists Leeds trio Rodon (hamstring, expected back 21 November) and Mateo Joseph (knee, unknown return date) as out. It lists James (back) as injured with a return date of 18 October, the day of the game.
For United, FPL lists Mazraoui, Shaw and Mainoo as doubtful, each with a 75% chance of playing. It lists Šeško (shin, expected back 18 October), Dorgu, Heaton and Ugarte as injured.
Head to head
In the last six meetings United have three wins, Leeds one and two have been drawn. Leeds won the most recent, 2-1 at Old Trafford on 13 April 2026, and the meeting before that finished 1-1 at Elland Road on 4 January 2026.
Before that, United won 2-0 at Elland Road in February 2023 after a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford days earlier. They also won 4-2 at Leeds in February 2022 and 5-1 at home in August 2021.
MFF prediction
MFF's match model predicts a 1-0 Leeds win. It gives Leeds a 40% chance of victory, 26% for a draw and 34% for a United win.