Fulham sit bottom of the Premier League and need a result badly when Hull City visit Craven Cottage on Saturday 17 October (3pm) in gameweek seven.
The hosts are 20th with two points from six games and a goal difference of -4. Hull are eighth with nine points from six, having won two and posted a goal difference of +2. Leaders Man City are the only side with a perfect record, with 18 points.
Form and season numbers
Fulham have lost three of their last five league games, at Sunderland (0-1), at Ipswich Town (1-2) and at home to Crystal Palace (2-3). The two draws were 0-0 at Liverpool and 1-1 at home to Man Utd. They average 1 goal per game, concede 1.67 and have one clean sheet.
Hull have lost only one of their last five. They won 1-0 at Coventry City, drew 0-0 at home to Aston Villa, 2-2 at Chelsea and 2-2 at home to Everton, and lost 2-1 at Newcastle. They average 1.33 goals per game, concede 1 and have three clean sheets. Their points-per-game figure is 1.5, against Fulham's 0.33.
Hull have collected 19 yellow cards to Fulham's 12. Matt Crooks is one booking from a ban, on four league bookings.
What the chance data says
Expected goals (xG), the quality of chances created, is more generous to Fulham, according to data via Fantasy Premier League. They average 1.6 xG per game and allow 1.71, so their results have been poorer than their numbers for creating chances. Hull average 1.11 xG for and 1.52 against, which suggests their defensive record of one goal conceded per game is better than the chances they allow.
Gonzalo leads Fulham's xG with 3 from 511 minutes, but has one goal, and is the club's first-choice penalty taker in FPL's data. King has two goals from 1.54 xG. Bobb has no assists from 1.18 expected assists.
For Hull, McBurnie has 1.23 xG without a goal, though he has two assists and is the first-choice penalty taker. Belloumi has three goals from 0.89 xG.
Team news and head-to-head
FPL lists Robinson as doubtful with an ankle injury, a 75% chance of playing. It lists Cairney as injured with a knee problem and expected back on 17 October.
Hull have a longer list. FPL has Hughes, Targett, Ansah, Butland, Matazo and Gyabi all as injured, each with a 0% chance of playing and no return date.
There is no recent league meeting between the clubs in our records, so form is the better guide.
MFF prediction
MFF's match model prediction is a 1-0 away win, Fulham 0-1 Hull City. It gives Hull a 41% chance of winning, Fulham 31% and a draw 28%.