Everton host Chelsea at Hill Dickinson Stadium (Everton Stadium) on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 12:30. It is Premier League gameweek 7, and the two sides sit next to each other in the table.
Level on points, separated by goal difference
Everton are fifth with 10 points from six games, two wins and a goal difference of +3. Chelsea are sixth, also on 10 points, with three wins and a goal difference of +2. Manchester City lead the way on 18 points after six wins from six.
Both teams average 1.67 points per game, and both have collected nine yellow cards. Beyond that, they look very different.
Everton have drawn four of their last five league games and won the other, 1-0 against Ipswich Town. Their most recent draws came at Bournemouth (1-1), against Manchester United (2-2), at Tottenham (0-0) and at Hull City (2-2). They average 1.33 goals per game and concede 0.83, and they have kept three clean sheets.
Chelsea have won two of their last five, drawn one and lost two. They beat Brighton 4-3 and Bournemouth 5-1, but lost 3-0 at Brentford and 2-1 at Arsenal, and drew 2-2 with Hull City. They score 2.5 goals per game and concede 2.17. They have yet to keep a clean sheet.
What the underlying numbers say
Expected goals data via Fantasy Premier League, which measures the quality of chances created and conceded, suggests Everton's record is fair. They average 1.47 xG for and 1.34 against per game. Chelsea's figures are 1.42 for and 1.76 against, so their goals per game (2.5) are well above the xG they generate.
The individual numbers tell a similar story. Everton's Barry has 4.4 xG and three goals in 502 minutes, and is the club's first-choice penalty taker. Dewsbury-Hall has two goals and one assist.
For Chelsea, João Pedro has scored five goals from 2.77 xG and added three assists. Rogers has four goals from 1.9 xG. Palmer, Chelsea's first-choice penalty taker, has two goals and four assists.
Head-to-head and team news
Chelsea have won three of the last six meetings, Everton two, with one draw. Everton won the latest, 3-0 at home on 21 March 2026. Chelsea had won 2-0 in December 2025 and 1-0 in April 2025, and their 6-0 win in April 2024 is the heaviest result in the run.
FPL lists Everton's Mykolenko as doubtful with a leg injury, 75% chance of playing. For Chelsea, FPL lists James as doubtful with an unspecified injury, also 75%. It has Emegha out with a hamstring problem, with an expected return date of 17 October, and Gittens out with an ankle injury and no known return date.
MFF's prediction
MFF's match model predicts a 2-1 Everton win. It gives Everton a 46% chance of victory, the draw 23% and Chelsea 30%.