AEK Athens 2-3 Real Madrid. Federico Valverde scored in the second minute of stoppage time to give Real Madrid a win at the Agia Sophia Stadium (OPAP Arena) in League phase matchday 4 of the Champions League. Aboubakary Koita was sent off three minutes later.
Decisive moments
AEK went ahead on 12 minutes. Koita scored from Luka Jovic's assist. Real Madrid levelled on 32 minutes when Jude Bellingham scored from a Marc Cucurella assist. It was 1-1 at the break.
AEK edged back in front on 75 minutes. Stavro Pilo scored, and Koita was credited with the assist. The lead lasted three minutes. Kylian Mbappé equalised on 78 minutes from a Denzel Dumfries assist.
Valverde then settled it at 90+2, with Brahim Díaz providing the assist. Koita was shown a red card at 90+5. He had been involved in two of his side's goals.
There were few other incidents. Kervin Arriaga was booked for AEK on 34 minutes and Cucurella for Real Madrid on 65.
What the numbers say
The statistics show a lopsided game, and the scoreline was much closer than they suggest. Real Madrid had 70% of the possession and took 24 shots to AEK's nine. Eight of those were on target, against five for the hosts. Nine more went off target and seven were blocked.
AEK had two shots off target and two blocked. They did not win a corner all night, while Real Madrid had seven. Real Madrid were flagged offside twice, AEK not at all. The visitors also committed more fouls, 16 to 9.
Real Madrid arrived having beaten Inter 2-1, Roma 4-3 and Leipzig 4-1. They now average 3.25 goals a game this season and concede 1.75. AEK had beaten LASK 1-0 but lost 3-1 at Shakhtar Donetsk and 5-1 at Manchester City. They average 1.25 goals a game and concede 2.75. Their only clean sheet of the campaign came against LASK.
What it means in the table
Real Madrid have won all four of their games and have 12 points. They are second, behind PSG on goal difference. PSG are on +15 and Real Madrid on +6. Both sit inside the top eight, who go straight through to the Round of 16.
AEK stay 30th with three points from four games and a goal difference of -6. That leaves them well outside the top 24. Only Slovan Bratislava are below them, in 36th with no points.
MFF's match model predicted AEK Athens 1-2 Real Madrid and gave the visitors a 60% chance of winning, with 22% for AEK and 18% for a draw. It picked the right winner but not the scoreline. There were two more goals than it expected, and the decisive one came in stoppage time.
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