Hull City and Brentford shared the points in a 1-1 draw at the MKM Stadium on Sunday, with Oli McBurnie's early penalty answered by Dango Ouattara after the break.
The decisive moments
Aaron Hickey was booked for Brentford in the 23rd minute. One minute later, McBurnie scored from the penalty spot to give Hull the lead.
That advantage lasted until the 63rd minute, when Ouattara levelled for Brentford. Igor Thiago provided the assist, and there were no further goals.
The point extends a run of draws for both clubs. Each has now drawn four of its last six Premier League games.
What the numbers say
Brentford had the better of the statistics. They had 57% of possession to Hull's 43% and finished with 14 shots to 12.
The gap in quality was clearer in shots on target: Brentford had six, Hull two. Hull's 12 attempts included eight off target, while Brentford had three off target and five blocked. Hull had two blocked.
Brentford also won the corner count 6-5. Fouls were close, with Hull committing 10 and Brentford nine. Brentford were flagged offside three times, Hull twice.
That fits the season picture. Expected goals data via Fantasy Premier League, which measures the quality of chances created, has Brentford averaging 1.74 per game across seven matches with data. Hull average 0.98.
Brentford also score more often on average, with 1.75 goals per game this season to Hull's 1.13. Hull have the better defensive record, though, conceding 1.00 per game to Brentford's 1.13. Hull have three clean sheets and Brentford two.
What it means in the table
Brentford are sixth in the Premier League table with 11 points from eight games. They have won two, and their goal difference is +5.
Hull are 10th with 10 points from eight, also with two wins and a goal difference of +1. That is a gap of one point between the sides.
Manchester City lead the table with 21 points from eight games, having won seven. Sunderland are bottom of the extract on four points, with a goal difference of -8, having played seven.
Brentford's points-per-game average is 1.38 this season. Hull's is 1.25.
The result also continues a short but one-sided head-to-head record. Brentford won 5-1 at Hull in February 2020, after a 1-1 draw at Brentford in August 2019. Hull have yet to win in the two recent meetings.
MFF's match model had predicted a 1-0 home win, giving Hull a 39% chance of victory, the draw 28% and a Brentford win 33%. It got this one wrong.
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