Fulham ended a five-match winless run with a 1-0 victory over Hull City at Craven Cottage on Saturday. Alex Iwobi scored the only goal in the 33rd minute, with Sander Berge providing the assist.
The decisive moments
The first half was bookings before goals. Lucas Herrington went into the book for Hull on 22 minutes, then Josh King (Fulham) and Regan Slater (Hull) were both cautioned on 27.
Six minutes later Fulham were in front. Berge set up Iwobi, and that proved enough.
Berge was booked on 84 minutes. In the fourth minute of stoppage time, Ryan Sessegnon was shown a red card for Fulham.
What the numbers say
Fulham dominated the match statistics. They had 76% of possession to Hull's 24% and took 18 shots to five. Six of Fulham's efforts were on target, six went off target and six were blocked.
Of Hull's five shots, four were off target and one was blocked. Fulham also won the corner count 11-2. Fouls were close at 13 to 11, and offsides were 1 for Fulham and 2 for Hull.
The result also fits the chances Fulham had been creating. Expected goals data via Fantasy Premier League, which measures the quality of chances created, had Fulham at 1.6 xG per game over six games with data. They had scored only 1.00 goals per game in the league before this match. Gonzalo García led the squad with 3 xG but only one goal in 556 minutes.
Hull came in with 1.11 xG per game over the same period against 1.14 goals per game actually scored. Oli McBurnie had 1.23 xG and no goals. FPL also listed nine Hull players as injured before the game.
It was a clean sheet for Fulham, who had managed two before this match and had been conceding 1.43 goals per game. Hull had kept three clean sheets and conceded 1.00 per game.
What it means in the table
Before kick-off Fulham were 15th with five points from seven games, one win and a goal difference of minus three. Hull were eighth on nine points, with two wins and a goal difference of plus one.
The victory lifts Fulham to eight points. Hull stay on nine, having arrived with one win, three draws and a defeat in their last five league games.
MFF's match model had predicted a 1-0 win for Hull, giving the away side a 41% chance, with 31% for a Fulham win and 28% for a draw. On this occasion it got the result wrong.
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