Tottenham won 2-0 at Stamford Bridge on Saturday evening. They scored twice in the last 13 minutes, after Chelsea were reduced to ten men.
It was the first time Spurs had beaten Chelsea in the six meetings in MFF's recent head-to-head records. Chelsea had won all six, including a 2-1 victory on 19 May.
The decisive minutes
The game stayed goalless until the 77th minute, when Chelsea goalkeeper Mike Penders put the ball into his own net to give Tottenham the lead.
Palmer had been booked in the 71st minute. Three minutes after the own goal, in the 80th, he received a second yellow card and was sent off. Pedro Neto had been cautioned in the 79th.
Tottenham made the extra man count. Tel scored in the 87th minute to make it 2-0. Morgan Rogers was booked in the first minute of stoppage time, Chelsea's fourth yellow card of the match on top of Palmer's dismissal.
Tottenham had three bookings of their own: Conor Gallagher (67th), Micky van de Ven (71st) and Mateus Fernandes (72nd).
What the numbers say
Tottenham controlled the ball, with 68% possession to Chelsea's 32%. They had 15 shots to Chelsea's seven and won the corner count 6-4.
Much of that pressure was kept out. Seven of Tottenham's shots were blocked, against two of Chelsea's, and four missed the target. Each side put four shots on target.
The rest of the stats were level or close. Both teams committed 14 fouls, and Chelsea were flagged offside twice to Tottenham's once.
Spurs' display was a step up on their season's output. Expected goals data via Fantasy Premier League, which measures the quality of chances created, has them averaging 1.07 per game over seven matches with data. Chelsea's figure is 1.43.
Tottenham had gone into the game after successive goalless draws, away at Nottingham Forest and at home to Everton. Chelsea had lost 2-1 at Arsenal in their previous league game.
What it means in the table
Chelsea stay fourth with 13 points from eight games, a goal difference of plus two and four wins. They are eight points behind leaders Manchester City, who have 21 points and a goal difference of plus 11.
Tottenham are 12th with nine points from eight matches, two wins and a goal difference of minus two.
MFF's match model had predicted a 2-1 Chelsea win, giving the home side a 60% chance, with 21% for a draw and 20% for a Tottenham win. It got this one wrong.
Add MFF as a preferred source on GoogleSee our stats first in Google's Top Stories and AI answers