Brentford beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 at the Brentford Community Stadium on Saturday 31 October 2026, an own goal and a late Igor Thiago finish deciding gameweek 9.
It was a result that went against most of the numbers from the afternoon.
The decisive moments
The opener came on 30 minutes, when Forest defender Nikola Milenkovic put the ball into his own net. He was shown a yellow card six minutes later.
Forest could not find a way back. On 76 minutes Thiago made it 2-0, set up by Jaidon Anthony.
Three Forest players were booked: Milenkovic, Daniel Muñoz (64 minutes) and James McAtee (83). Brentford's Michael Kayode took the home side's only yellow, on 68 minutes.
What the numbers say
Forest had 58% of possession to Brentford's 42%, and they had 15 shots to the home side's seven. Six of Forest's efforts were blocked, against one of Brentford's.
Yet each side registered just one shot on target. Forest had eight shots off target and Brentford five. Corners were close, with Forest winning four and Brentford three.
Forest also committed 17 fouls to Brentford's six.
Forest's season figures help explain the frustration. Using expected goals data via Fantasy Premier League (xG, the quality of chances created), they average 1.76 xG per game over eight games with data, yet they score only 0.67 goals per game. Brentford's output is closer to their chances: 1.74 xG per game and 1.78 goals.
FPL's player data shows Thiago on 3.81 xG for one goal in 759 minutes, so the striker had been creating more than he had been finishing. Forest's Liam Delap is on 2.7 xG for one goal in 575 minutes.
What it means
Brentford are sixth with 14 points from nine games, three wins and a goal difference of plus seven. They have kept three clean sheets this season. Manchester City lead the table on 21 points.
Forest are 18th with six points, one win and a goal difference of minus six. Only Sunderland, 20th on five points from eight games, have a similar record at the bottom.
Forest's recent form was already poor, with one win in their previous five league games, and this was another defeat. Brentford had drawn three of their last five before this match.
In the recent head-to-head, Forest had won three of the previous six meetings, including a 2-0 win at Brentford in January 2026. This was Brentford's first home win over them in that run, going back to a 3-2 victory in January 2024.
MFF's match model had predicted a 1-0 Brentford win, giving the home side a 47% chance, with 26% for a draw and 27% for Forest. It called the winner correctly but not the score.
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