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Atlético Madrid vs Girona: Predictions, Betting Odds, Lineups, Preview

By
Harvey Watkins
Harvey Watkins is a football specialist who lives and breathes match predictions, betting angles, and stats-based analysis. With more than six years in sports content, he...
11 Min Read

Explore My Football Facts' detailed preview for Atlético Madrid vs Girona in the La Liga. Stats, odds, predictions, and lineups for the 18:00 BST match.

Fixture Information

Fixture Atlético Madrid vs Girona
Competition La Liga
Date Sunday, 17 May 2026
Kick-off 18:00 BST
Venue Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Match Prediction: Atlético Madrid 1-0 Girona

Prediction Stats

Fulltime Result Probability

Atlético Madrid56.28%
Girona19.63%
Draw24.08%

Both Teams To Score Probability

Yes49.79%
No50.21%

Over/Under 2.5 Probability

Yes50.16%
No49.84%

Last 5 Meetings

League Date Match Score Venue
La Liga 21 Dec 2025 231Girona vs 7980Atlético Madrid 0 – 3 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi
La Liga 25 May 2025 231Girona vs 7980Atlético Madrid 0 – 4 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi
La Liga 25 Aug 2024 7980Atlético Madrid vs 231Girona 3 – 0 Riyadh Air Metropolitano
La Liga 13 Apr 2024 7980Atlético Madrid vs 231Girona 3 – 1 Riyadh Air Metropolitano
La Liga 03 Jan 2024 231Girona vs 7980Atlético Madrid 4 – 3 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi

Atlético Madrid come into this one with the stronger recent league numbers, having won three of their last five and kept two clean sheets in those victories. Girona’s league form is much thinner, with no wins in their last five and only two draws, so the data points towards Atlético having the more reliable base. The head-to-head record also leans heavily towards Atlético, who have won the last four meetings without conceding a goal in three of them.

A tight game looks the most likely outcome given Girona’s recent run of low-scoring results and Atlético’s tendency in this sample to win by narrow margins. With no xG data available, the clearest guide is the results profile, and that suggests a controlled home performance rather than an open contest. Atlético’s recent wins over Osasuna and Valencia show they can edge games, while Girona have struggled to turn draws into victories.

Form Guide & Team Overview

Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid’s recent league form is mixed but still stronger than Girona’s, with three wins and two defeats across their last five. The wins over Osasuna, Valencia and Athletic Club show they have been able to get results both home and away, while the losses to Celta de Vigo and Elche show there is still some inconsistency.

In all competitions, Atlético Madrid’s last five include a Champions League draw and a Champions League defeat against Arsenal, plus league wins over Osasuna and Valencia. That gives them a record of two wins, one draw and two losses in the broader sample, which is solid enough but not dominant.

Atlético Madrid Last 5 Results

League Date Match Score Result Venue
La Liga 12 May 2026 459Osasuna vs 7980Atlético Madrid 1 – 2 W Estadio El Sadar
La Liga 9 May 2026 7980Atlético Madrid vs 36Celta de Vigo 0 – 1 L Riyadh Air Metropolitano
La Liga 2 May 2026 214Valencia vs 7980Atlético Madrid 0 – 2 W Estadio de Mestalla
La Liga 25 Apr 2026 7980Atlético Madrid vs 13258Athletic Club 3 – 2 W Riyadh Air Metropolitano
La Liga 22 Apr 2026 1099Elche vs 7980Atlético Madrid 3 – 2 L Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Girona

Girona’s recent league form is poor on the supplied data, with no wins in their last five. They have drawn with Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid, but the other three matches ended in defeats to Mallorca, Valencia and Real Betis.

Across all competitions, Girona’s last five are the same sequence of results, so there is no stronger wider trend to lean on. The main takeaway is that they have been competitive in a couple of away matches, but they have not been able to convert that into wins.

Girona Last 5 Results

League Date Match Score Result Venue
La Liga 11 May 2026 377Rayo Vallecano vs 231Girona 1 – 1 D Estadio de Vallecas
La Liga 1 May 2026 231Girona vs 645Mallorca 0 – 1 L Estadi Municipal de Montilivi
La Liga 25 Apr 2026 214Valencia vs 231Girona 2 – 1 L Estadio de Mestalla
La Liga 21 Apr 2026 231Girona vs 485Real Betis 2 – 3 L Estadi Municipal de Montilivi
La Liga 10 Apr 2026 3468Real Madrid vs 231Girona 1 – 1 D Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Team News & Injury Report

Atlético Madrid

  • Johnny Cardoso (Ankle Surgery)

Girona

  • Vladyslav Vanat (Torn Thigh Muscle)

Lineups & Tactical Setup

Atlético Madrid vs Girona predicted lineups
Predicted lineups graphic generated from the latest available lineup data, with player names listed below.

Atlético Madrid (4-4-2)

Predicted lineup: Juan Musso (Goalkeeper), Dávid Hancko (Defender), Marc Pubill (Defender), Marcos Llorente (Defender), Matteo Ruggeri (Defender), Koke (Midfielder), Obed Vargas (Midfielder), Rodrigo Mendoza (Midfielder), Thiago Almada (Midfielder), Ademola Lookman (Attacker), Antoine Griezmann (Attacker)

Atlético Madrid’s predicted 4-4-2 gives them a compact shape that can stay organised without the ball and still support two forwards in transition. With Koke and the midfield line helping to control the centre, the wide players can also provide the service needed for Ademola Lookman and Antoine Griezmann.

Girona (4-2-3-1)

Predicted lineup: Paulo Gazzaniga (Goalkeeper), Alejandro Francés (Defender), Arnau Martínez (Defender), Vitor Reis (Defender), Álex Moreno (Defender), Axel Witsel (Midfielder), Fran Beltrán (Midfielder), Joel Roca (Midfielder), Thomas Lemar (Midfielder), Viktor Tsygankov (Midfielder), Azzedine Ounahi (Attacker)

Girona’s predicted 4-2-3-1 should give them a stable base in midfield, with two deeper players helping to protect the back line. The shape also leaves room for Azzedine Ounahi to operate higher up and connect with the attacking midfield support around him.

Key Battles & Players to Watch

Atlético Madrid Girona Key Battle Overview
Atlético Madrid Girona Ademola Lookman against Alejandro Francés could be important if Atlético look to attack the right side and force Girona’s defender into repeated one-v-one situations.
Atlético Madrid Girona Koke against Axel Witsel may shape the midfield tempo, with both players likely central to how each side keeps possession and breaks up play.
Atlético Madrid Girona Ademola Lookman is key for Atlético Madrid because he has been included in the recent and predicted lineups and offers a direct attacking option in a side expected to win narrowly.
Atlético Madrid Girona Azzedine Ounahi is key for Girona because he appears in the recent and predicted lineups and is one of the main attacking outlets in their 4-2-3-1 shape.

FAQs

How to watch Atlético Madrid vs Girona

Atlético Madrid vs Girona at 18:00 BST on Sunday, 17 May 2026 is not listed as being broadcast live for viewers in the UK in the supplied data.

What is My Football Facts' prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Girona?

My Football Facts is predicting that the score will be Atlético Madrid 1-0 Girona in this match.

Can you bet on Atlético Madrid vs Girona?

My Football Facts is giving fans the ability to bet on various markets for Atlético Madrid vs Girona.

What Other Betting Stats do you have?

Away Over/Under 3.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 2.02%
No 97.98%

Corners Over/Under 7 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 73.06%
No 16.95%
Equal 10%

Corners Over/Under 8 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 61.34%
No 26.94%
Equal 11.72%

Double Chance Probability

Outcome Probability
Draw / Atlético Madrid 80.36%
Draw / Girona 43.71%
Atlético Madrid / Girona 75.91%

Home Over/Under 3.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 9.94%
No 90.06%

Corners Over/Under 10.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 37.22%
No 62.78%

Away Over/Under 1.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 22.64%
No 77.36%

First Half Winner Probability

Outcome Probability
Atlético Madrid 38.64%
Girona 18.96%
Draw 42.40%

Team To Score First Probability

Outcome Probability
Atlético Madrid 59.72%
Girona 32.59%
Draw 7.69%

Over/Under 4.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 17.45%
No 82.55%

Corners Over/Under 4 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 95.53%
No 1.75%
Equal 2.72%

Corners Over/Under 5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 90.60%
No 4.47%
Equal 4.93%

Corners Over/Under 6 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 83.05%
No 9.40%
Equal 7.54%

Away Over/Under 2.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 7.36%
No 92.64%

Home Over/Under 2.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 24.92%
No 75.08%

Home Over/Under 0.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 81.27%
No 18.73%

Over/Under 3.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 29.43%
No 70.57%

Corners Over/Under 11 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 26.87%
No 62.78%
Equal 10.35%

Home Over/Under 1.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 51.27%
No 48.73%

Away Over/Under 0.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 53.85%
No 46.15%

Corners Over/Under 9 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 49.01%
No 38.66%
Equal 12.33%

Half Time/Full Time Probability

Outcome Probability
Atlético Madrid / Atlético Madrid 33.32%
Atlético Madrid / Girona 1.78%
Atlético Madrid / Draw 4.68%
Girona / Atlético Madrid 3.26%
Girona / Girona 10.50%
Girona / Draw 4.59%
Draw / Draw 13.61%
Draw / Atlético Madrid 19.81%
Draw / Girona 8.43%

Corners Over/Under 10 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 37.22%
No 50.99%
Equal 11.79%

Correct Score Probability

Outcome Probability
1-0 12.71%
2-0 10.54%
1-1 10.36%
OTHER 1 9.72%
2-1 9.47%
0-0 7.69%

Over/Under 1.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 73.68%
No 26.32%

For the best La Liga outright predictions, explore our guide.

Odds and market details are accurate as of the time of publication.

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Harvey Watkins is a football specialist who lives and breathes match predictions, betting angles, and stats-based analysis. With more than six years in sports content, he has earned a strong reputation for producing football coverage that is sharp, informed, and backed by the numbers. His work digs into form, xG, trends, team data, and market movement to give readers a clearer view of the game and the betting value around it. No filler, no forced nonsense just proper football insight for readers who want smart previews and honest analysis.
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