Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid: Predictions, Betting Odds, Lineups, Preview

Harvey Watkins
By
Harvey Watkins
Harvey Watkins is a football specialist who lives and breathes match predictions, betting angles, and stats-based analysis. With more than six years in sports content, he...
11 Min Read

Explore My Football Facts' detailed preview for Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid in the La Liga. Stats, odds, predictions, and lineups for the 20:30 BST match.

Fixture Information

Fixture Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid
Competition La Liga
Date Tuesday, 12 May 2026
Kick-off 20:30 BST
Venue Estadio El Sadar

Match Prediction: Osasuna 2-1 Atlético Madrid

Prediction Stats

Fulltime Result Probability

Osasuna39.16%
Atlético Madrid34.32%
Draw26.53%

Both Teams To Score Probability

Yes55.26%
No44.74%

Over/Under 2.5 Probability

Yes50.82%
No49.18%

Last 5 Meetings

League Date Match Score Venue
La Liga 18 Oct 2025 7980Atlético Madrid vs 459Osasuna 1 – 0 Riyadh Air Metropolitano
La Liga 15 May 2025 459Osasuna vs 7980Atlético Madrid 2 – 0 Estadio El Sadar
La Liga 12 Jan 2025 7980Atlético Madrid vs 459Osasuna 1 – 0 Riyadh Air Metropolitano
La Liga 19 May 2024 7980Atlético Madrid vs 459Osasuna 1 – 4 Riyadh Air Metropolitano
La Liga 28 Sep 2023 459Osasuna vs 7980Atlético Madrid 0 – 2 Estadio El Sadar

Osasuna come into this with a mixed but fairly steady home record in the recent league results, and they have already shown they can edge tight games at Estadio El Sadar. Atlético Madrid have won two of their last five in the league, but the three defeats in that run suggest they have not been fully reliable away from home. With no xG data available, the clearest read is that this could be decided by small margins rather than sustained dominance.

Osasuna’s recent results point to a side capable of staying in games and taking chances when they come, while Atlético Madrid’s away win at Valencia shows they can still produce a result on the road. The head-to-head also suggests there is room for an upset, with Osasuna beating Atlético Madrid 2-0 in May 2025 and 4-1 in May 2024. Match Prediction: Osasuna 2-1 Atlético Madrid

Form Guide & Team Overview

Osasuna

Osasuna’s recent league form has been mixed, with one win, two draws and two defeats across their last five. The home results are the most encouraging part, as they beat Sevilla 2-1 and drew 1-1 with Real Betis, which suggests they can compete well at Estadio El Sadar.

Their defeats have also been narrow, losing 1-2 to FC Barcelona and 0-1 to Athletic Club, so they have not been far away in those games. That pattern points to a side that is generally competitive and capable of keeping matches close.

Osasuna Last 5 Results

League Date Match Score Result Venue
La Liga 2 May 2026 459Osasuna vs 83FC Barcelona 1 – 2 L Estadio El Sadar
La Liga 26 Apr 2026 459Osasuna vs 676Sevilla 2 – 1 W Estadio El Sadar
La Liga 21 Apr 2026 13258Athletic Club vs 459Osasuna 1 – 0 L San Mamés Barria
La Liga 12 Apr 2026 459Osasuna vs 485Real Betis 1 – 1 D Estadio El Sadar
La Liga 5 Apr 2026 2975Deportivo Alavés vs 459Osasuna 2 – 2 D Estadio de Mendizorroza

Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid’s recent league form has been inconsistent, with two wins and three defeats in their last five. The wins over Valencia and Athletic Club show they can still put together strong performances, but the losses to Elche, Sevilla and FC Barcelona underline the gaps in their recent results.

Away from home, the 2-0 win at Valencia is a positive sign, but the broader run still leans towards volatility. On the evidence provided, they have been capable of scoring, yet not always able to control games for long enough.

Atlético Madrid Last 5 Results

League Date Match Score Result Venue
La Liga 2 May 2026 214Valencia vs 7980Atlético Madrid 0 – 2 W Estadio de Mestalla
La Liga 25 Apr 2026 7980Atlético Madrid vs 13258Athletic Club 3 – 2 W Riyadh Air Metropolitano
La Liga 22 Apr 2026 1099Elche vs 7980Atlético Madrid 3 – 2 L Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
La Liga 11 Apr 2026 676Sevilla vs 7980Atlético Madrid 2 – 1 L Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
La Liga 4 Apr 2026 7980Atlético Madrid vs 83FC Barcelona 1 – 2 L Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Team News & Injury Report

Osasuna

  • No injuries have been reported for the current season.

Atlético Madrid

  • Nico González (Unknown Injury)

Lineups & Tactical Setup

Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid predicted lineups
Predicted lineups graphic generated from the latest available lineup data, with player names listed below.

Osasuna (4-2-3-1)

Predicted lineup: Sergio Herrera (Goalkeeper), Alejandro Catena (Defender), Enzo Boyomo (Defender), Javi Galán (Defender), Valentin Rosier (Defender), Aimar Oroz (Midfielder), Iker Muñoz (Midfielder), Jon Moncayola (Midfielder), Ante Budimir (Attacker), Raúl Moro (Attacker), Rubén García (Attacker)

Osasuna’s predicted 4-2-3-1 should give them a solid base through the double pivot, while Aimar Oroz can help connect midfield to attack. With Ante Budimir as the central reference point, the shape looks suited to getting runners around him and making the most of home pressure.

Atlético Madrid (4-5-1)

Predicted lineup: Juan Musso (Goalkeeper), Clément Lenglet (Defender), Javier Boñar (Defender), Julio Díaz (Defender), Robin Le Normand (Defender), Javi Morcillo (Midfielder), Nahuel Molina (Midfielder), Obed Vargas (Midfielder), Rodrigo Mendoza (Midfielder), Thiago Almada (Midfielder), Rayane Belaid (Attacker)

Atlético Madrid’s predicted 4-5-1 suggests a compact midfield block designed to stay organised and limit space between the lines. Rayane Belaid will be important as the main forward outlet, especially if Atlético Madrid look to break quickly after regaining possession.

Key Battles & Players to Watch

Osasuna Atlético Madrid Key Battle Overview
Osasuna Atlético Madrid Ante Budimir against Clément Lenglet could be decisive if Osasuna look to play direct and test Atlético Madrid’s central defence.
Osasuna Atlético Madrid Aimar Oroz against Javi Morcillo may shape the midfield battle, with Osasuna needing Oroz to link play cleanly.
Osasuna Atlético Madrid Ante Budimir is key for Osasuna because he gives them a clear focal point and a likely route to goal in a tight game.
Osasuna Atlético Madrid Rayane Belaid is key for Atlético Madrid because he is the main attacking name in the predicted shape and the likely outlet at the top end.

FAQs

How to watch Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid

Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid at 20:30 BST on Tuesday, 12 May 2026 is not listed as being broadcast live for viewers in the UK in the supplied data.

What is My Football Facts' prediction for Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid?

My Football Facts is predicting that the score will be Osasuna 2-1 Atlético Madrid in this match.

Can you bet on Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid?

My Football Facts is giving fans the ability to bet on various markets for Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid.

What Other Betting Stats do you have?

Corners Over/Under 10.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 34.35%
No 65.65%

Home Over/Under 3.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 5.27%
No 94.73%

Corners Over/Under 6 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 79.86%
No 11.83%
Equal 8.32%

Corners Over/Under 9 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 45.54%
No 42.44%
Equal 12.02%

Corners Over/Under 8 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 57.56%
No 30.63%
Equal 11.80%

Over/Under 3.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 27.99%
No 72.01%

Away Over/Under 0.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 69.14%
No 30.86%

Half Time/Full Time Probability

Outcome Probability
Osasuna / Osasuna 21.63%
Osasuna / Atlético Madrid 2.60%
Osasuna / Draw 5.95%
Atlético Madrid / Osasuna 3.74%
Atlético Madrid / Atlético Madrid 18.14%
Atlético Madrid / Draw 5.44%
Draw / Draw 15.79%
Draw / Osasuna 13.78%
Draw / Atlético Madrid 12.93%

Team To Score First Probability

Outcome Probability
Osasuna 47.97%
Atlético Madrid 44.83%
Draw 7.20%

Away Over/Under 1.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 34.87%
No 65.13%

Away Over/Under 3.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 4.07%
No 95.93%

Corners Over/Under 7 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 69.37%
No 20.14%
Equal 10.49%

Corners Over/Under 10 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 34.35%
No 54.46%
Equal 11.19%

Over/Under 4.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 15.27%
No 84.73%

Corners Over/Under 4 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 93.96%
No 2.58%
Equal 3.46%

First Half Winner Probability

Outcome Probability
Osasuna 30.57%
Atlético Madrid 26.16%
Draw 43.27%

Corners Over/Under 5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 88.17%
No 6.04%
Equal 5.79%

Corners Over/Under 11 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 24.74%
No 65.65%
Equal 9.61%

Correct Score Probability

Outcome Probability
1-1 12.38%
1-0 9.38%
2-1 9.11%
0-1 8.79%
1-2 8.14%
0-0 7.20%

Over/Under 1.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 74.63%
No 25.37%

Home Over/Under 1.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 39.06%
No 60.94%

Home Over/Under 2.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 16.01%
No 83.99%

Double Chance Probability

Outcome Probability
Draw / Osasuna 65.69%
Draw / Atlético Madrid 60.85%
Osasuna / Atlético Madrid 73.48%

Home Over/Under 0.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 72.16%
No 27.84%

Away Over/Under 2.5 Probability

Outcome Probability
Yes 13.44%
No 86.56%

For the best La Liga outright predictions, explore our guide.

Odds and market details are accurate as of the time of publication.

Share This Article
Harvey Watkins is a football specialist who lives and breathes match predictions, betting angles, and stats-based analysis. With more than six years in sports content, he has earned a strong reputation for producing football coverage that is sharp, informed, and backed by the numbers. His work digs into form, xG, trends, team data, and market movement to give readers a clearer view of the game and the betting value around it. No filler, no forced nonsense just proper football insight for readers who want smart previews and honest analysis.
Enable Notifications OK No thanks