Explore My Football Facts' detailed preview for Manchester United vs Liverpool in the Premier League. Stats, odds, predictions, and lineups for the 15:30 BST match.
Fixture Information
| Fixture | Manchester United vs Liverpool |
|---|---|
| Competition | Premier League |
| Date | Sunday, 03 May 2026 |
| Kick-off | 15:30 BST |
| Venue | Old Trafford |
Match Prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Liverpool
Prediction Stats
Fulltime Result Probability
Both Teams To Score Probability
Over/Under 2.5 Probability
xG Stats & Match Facts
| Manchester United | Metric | Liverpool | What it suggests |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.22 | Expected Goals (xG) | 1.14 | Manchester United have the edge on this metric. |
| 2.43 | Expected Goals on Target (xGoT) | 1.29 | Manchester United have created the better quality shots on target. |
| 2.45 | Expected Points (xPTS) | 0.42 | Manchester United are rated stronger by expected points. |
| 0.00 | Expected Goals Free Kicks (xGFK) | 0.03 | Liverpool have the stronger set-piece xG number. |
| 0.33 | Expected Goals Corners (xGC) | 0.08 | Manchester United have the stronger set-piece xG number. |
| 3.22 | Expected Goals Non Penalty Goals (npxG) | 1.14 | Manchester United have the edge on this metric. |
| 0.48 | Expected Goals Set Play (xGSP) | 0.11 | Manchester United have the stronger set-piece xG number. |
| 2.73 | Expected Goals Open Play (xGOP) | 1.03 | Manchester United carry the bigger open-play threat. |
| 1.14 | Expected Goals Against (xGA) | 3.22 | Manchester United have the stronger defensive xG profile here. |
Last 5 Meetings
| League | Date | Match | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 03 May 2026 |  Manchester United vs  Liverpool |
3 – 2 | Old Trafford |
| Premier League | 19 Oct 2025 | Liverpool vs Manchester United |
1 – 2 | Anfield |
| Premier League | 05 Jan 2025 | Liverpool vs Manchester United |
2 – 2 | Anfield |
| Premier League | 01 Sep 2024 | Manchester United vs Liverpool |
0 – 3 | Old Trafford |
| Premier League | 07 Apr 2024 | Manchester United vs Liverpool |
2 – 2 | Old Trafford |
Manchester United come into this one with the stronger recent numbers in the supplied data, and the xG profile also leans their way at 3.22 to 1.14. That suggests they have been creating more and allowing less, which is a useful betting angle when looking at a tight Premier League meeting at Old Trafford. Liverpool’s recent results still show enough threat to make this competitive, but the balance of the data points to United having the edge.
A repeat of the recent head-to-head pattern would not be a surprise, with Manchester United already beating Liverpool 3-2 and 2-1 in the supplied meetings. Liverpool’s injury to Mohamed Salah also removes one of their listed attacking options, which could matter in a game where chances may be at a premium. United’s home form in the recent results is also a positive, and that makes a narrow home win the most data-led call.
Form Guide & Team Overview
Manchester United
Manchester United’s recent league form is strong, with three wins from their last five listed matches. They have beaten Liverpool 3-2, Brentford 2-1 and Chelsea 1-0, which shows they have been getting results against a mix of opponents.
The only setbacks in that run were a 1-2 home loss to Leeds United and a 2-2 draw away to AFC Bournemouth. Overall, the sequence suggests a side with momentum, and the xG figures back that up by showing United at 3.22 expected goals and 1.14 expected goals against.
Manchester United Last 5 Results
| League | Date | Match | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 3 May 2026 | Manchester United vs Liverpool |
3 – 2 | W | Old Trafford |
| Premier League | 27 Apr 2026 | Manchester United vs  Brentford |
2 – 1 | W | Old Trafford |
| Premier League | 18 Apr 2026 |  Chelsea vs Manchester United |
0 – 1 | W | Stamford Bridge |
| Premier League | 13 Apr 2026 | Manchester United vs  Leeds United |
1 – 2 | L | Old Trafford |
| Premier League | 20 Mar 2026 |  AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester United |
2 – 2 | D | Vitality Stadium |
Liverpool
Liverpool’s recent league form is more mixed, with three wins and two defeats in their last five listed matches. They lost 2-3 at Manchester United, but followed that with wins over Crystal Palace, Everton and Fulham.
The other defeat in the league run was a 1-2 loss at Brighton & Hove Albion, while the all-competitions list also includes a 0-2 Champions League defeat to Paris Saint Germain. Their numbers still show attacking threat, but the supplied xG data is less convincing than United’s, with Liverpool at 1.14 expected goals and 3.22 expected goals against.
Liverpool Last 5 Results
| League | Date | Match | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 3 May 2026 | Manchester United vs Liverpool |
3 – 2 | L | Old Trafford |
| Premier League | 25 Apr 2026 | Liverpool vs  Crystal Palace |
3 – 1 | W | Anfield |
| Premier League | 19 Apr 2026 |  Everton vs Liverpool |
1 – 2 | W | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| Premier League | 11 Apr 2026 | Liverpool vs  Fulham |
2 – 0 | W | Anfield |
| Premier League | 21 Mar 2026 |  Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool |
2 – 1 | L | The American Express Community Stadium |
Team News & Injury Report
Manchester United
- No injuries have been reported for the current season.
Liverpool
- Mohamed Salah (Thigh Problems)
Lineups & Tactical Setup
Manchester United (4-2-3-1)
Predicted lineup: Senne Lammens (Goalkeeper), Ayden Heaven (Defender), Diogo Dalot (Defender), Harry Maguire (Defender), Luke Shaw (Defender), Bruno Fernandes (Midfielder), Bryan Mbeumo (Midfielder), Casemiro (Midfielder), Kobbie Mainoo (Midfielder), Matheus Cunha (Midfielder), Benjamin Sesko (Attacker)
Manchester United’s 4-2-3-1 should give them a solid base with two midfielders screening the defence and allowing the attacking line to support Benjamin Sesko. With Bruno Fernandes and Matheus Cunha in advanced roles, they should have enough between the lines to link play and create chances.
Liverpool (4-2-2-2)
Predicted lineup: Freddie Woodman (Goalkeeper), Andrew Robertson (Defender), Curtis Jones (Defender), Ibrahima Konaté (Defender), Virgil van Dijk (Defender), Alexis Mac Allister (Midfielder), Cody Gakpo (Midfielder), Jeremie Frimpong (Midfielder), Ryan Gravenberch (Midfielder), Dominik Szoboszlai (Attacker), Florian Wirtz (Attacker)
Liverpool’s 4-2-2-2 can keep bodies central and give them a compact shape in possession, with Dominik Szoboszlai and Florian Wirtz offering the main attacking thrust. The double pivot behind them should help Liverpool stay connected, but the system will need width from the full-backs to stretch Manchester United.
Key Battles & Players to Watch
| Manchester United | Liverpool | Key Battle Overview |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | Liverpool | Benjamin Sesko against Andrew Robertson could be important if United look to play direct into the forward and attack Liverpool’s left side. |
| Manchester United | Liverpool | Bruno Fernandes against Alexis Mac Allister is a key midfield duel because both are central to how their teams build attacks. |
| Manchester United | Liverpool | Benjamin Sesko is key for Manchester United because the supplied lineups show him as the main attacking reference in the 4-2-3-1. |
| Manchester United | Liverpool | Dominik Szoboszlai is key for Liverpool because he is listed in the front two and gives them a direct goal threat. |
FAQs
For the best Premier League outright predictions, explore our guide.
Odds and market details are accurate as of the time of publication.
