Explore My Football Facts' detailed preview for AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace in the Premier League. Stats, odds, predictions, and lineups for the 14:00 BST match.
Fixture Information
| Fixture | AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace |
|---|---|
| Competition | Premier League |
| Date | Sunday, 03 May 2026 |
| Kick-off | 14:00 BST |
| Venue | Vitality Stadium |
Match Prediction: AFC Bournemouth 2-1 Crystal Palace
Prediction Stats
Fulltime Result Probability
Both Teams To Score Probability
Over/Under 2.5 Probability
xG Stats & Match Facts
| AFC Bournemouth | Metric | Crystal Palace | What it suggests |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.16 | Expected Goals (xG) | 1.08 | AFC Bournemouth have the edge on this metric. |
| 1.88 | Expected Goals on Target (xGoT) | 0.30 | AFC Bournemouth have created the better quality shots on target. |
| 2.06 | Expected Points (xPTS) | 0.74 | AFC Bournemouth are rated stronger by expected points. |
| 0.79 | Expected Goals Penalties (xGP) | 0.00 | AFC Bournemouth have the edge on this metric. |
| 0.08 | Expected Goals Free Kicks (xGFK) | 0.00 | AFC Bournemouth have the stronger set-piece xG number. |
| 0.11 | Expected Goals Corners (xGC) | 0.00 | AFC Bournemouth have the stronger set-piece xG number. |
| 1.37 | Expected Goals Non Penalty Goals (npxG) | 1.08 | AFC Bournemouth have the edge on this metric. |
| 1.07 | Expected Goals Set Play (xGSP) | 0.21 | AFC Bournemouth have the stronger set-piece xG number. |
| 1.09 | Expected Goals Open Play (xGOP) | 0.88 | AFC Bournemouth carry the bigger open-play threat. |
| 1.08 | Expected Goals Against (xGA) | 2.16 | AFC Bournemouth have the stronger defensive xG profile here. |
Last 5 Meetings
| League | Date | Match | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 03 May 2026 |  AFC Bournemouth vs  Crystal Palace |
3 – 0 | Vitality Stadium |
| Premier League | 18 Oct 2025 | Crystal Palace vs AFC Bournemouth |
3 – 3 | Selhurst Park |
| Premier League | 19 Apr 2025 | Crystal Palace vs AFC Bournemouth |
0 – 0 | Selhurst Park |
| Premier League | 26 Dec 2024 | AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace |
0 – 0 | Vitality Stadium |
| Premier League | 02 Apr 2024 | AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace |
1 – 0 | Vitality Stadium |
AFC Bournemouth come into this with the stronger recent numbers, including a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace in the latest meeting and an xG edge of 2.16 to 1.08. Their xGoT of 1.88 also suggests they have been creating better quality chances on target than Palace, whose xGoT is only 0.30. At the Vitality Stadium, that points towards Bournemouth having the more reliable attacking platform.
Crystal Palace do still have enough in the data to make this competitive, especially with Brennan Johnson in their attacking line and a recent 3-3 draw in the head-to-head sequence. But their recent league form has been mixed, with losses to Bournemouth and Liverpool sitting alongside two goalless draws and a narrow win over Newcastle United. Match Prediction: AFC Bournemouth 2-1 Crystal Palace
Form Guide & Team Overview
AFC Bournemouth
AFC Bournemouth’s recent league form is strong, with three wins and two draws in their last five. That run includes a 3-0 home win over Crystal Palace, plus away victories against Newcastle United and Arsenal, both by 2-1 margins.
The underlying numbers also back up that positive spell, with Bournemouth posting 2.16 xG and 1.88 xGoT against Palace’s 1.08 xG and 0.30 xGoT. Their expected points figure of 2.06 is another sign they have been performing like a side capable of taking control of matches.
AFC Bournemouth Last 5 Results
| League | Date | Match | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 3 May 2026 | AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace |
3 – 0 | W | Vitality Stadium |
| Premier League | 22 Apr 2026 | AFC Bournemouth vs  Leeds United |
2 – 2 | D | Vitality Stadium |
| Premier League | 18 Apr 2026 |  Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth |
1 – 2 | W | St. James' Park |
| Premier League | 11 Apr 2026 |  Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth |
1 – 2 | W | Emirates Stadium |
| Premier League | 20 Mar 2026 | AFC Bournemouth vs  Manchester United |
2 – 2 | D | Vitality Stadium |
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace’s recent league form is less convincing, with one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five. The defeats include a 3-0 loss away to AFC Bournemouth and a 3-1 loss away to Liverpool, while the draws against West Ham United and Leeds United were both goalless.
There is some encouragement from the 2-1 win over Newcastle United and the 3-3 draw with Bournemouth earlier in the head-to-head sequence. Even so, the recent data points to a side that has struggled for attacking output, especially when compared with Bournemouth’s stronger chance creation.
Crystal Palace Last 5 Results
| League | Date | Match | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 3 May 2026 | AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace |
3 – 0 | L | Vitality Stadium |
| Premier League | 25 Apr 2026 |  Liverpool vs Crystal Palace |
3 – 1 | L | Anfield |
| Premier League | 20 Apr 2026 | Crystal Palace vs  West Ham United |
0 – 0 | D | Selhurst Park |
| Premier League | 12 Apr 2026 | Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United |
2 – 1 | W | Selhurst Park |
| Premier League | 15 Mar 2026 | Crystal Palace vs Leeds United |
0 – 0 | D | Selhurst Park |
Team News & Injury Report
AFC Bournemouth
- Will Dennis (Ankle Injury)
Crystal Palace
- Evann Guessand (Knee Injury)
Lineups & Tactical Setup
AFC Bournemouth (4-2-3-1)
Predicted lineup: Djordje Petrovic (Goalkeeper), Adrien Truffert (Defender), James Hill (Defender), Marcos Senesi (Defender), Álex Jiménez (Defender), Alex Scott (Midfielder), Eli Kroupi (Midfielder), Marcus Tavernier (Midfielder), Rayan (Midfielder), Tyler Adams (Midfielder), Evanilson (Attacker)
Bournemouth’s predicted 4-2-3-1 gives them a solid base with two midfielders screening the defence and helping them stay compact. It also leaves enough support ahead of Evanilson for Alex Scott, Marcus Tavernier and Rayan to link play and create chances between the lines.
Crystal Palace (3-4-3)
Predicted lineup: Dean Henderson (Goalkeeper), Chadi Riad (Defender), Jaydee Canvot (Defender), Maxence Lacroix (Defender), Daichi Kamada (Midfielder), Daniel Muñoz (Midfielder), Jefferson Lerma (Midfielder), Justin Devenny (Midfielder), Brennan Johnson (Attacker), Jørgen Strand Larsen (Attacker), Yéremy Pino (Attacker)
Palace’s predicted 3-4-3 should give them width from the wing-backs and three forwards to stretch Bournemouth’s back line. With Daichi Kamada and Jefferson Lerma in midfield, they can try to keep the ball moving and feed Brennan Johnson, Jørgen Strand Larsen and Yéremy Pino early.
Key Battles & Players to Watch
| AFC Bournemouth | Crystal Palace | Key Battle Overview |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth | Crystal Palace | Evanilson will look to use Bournemouth’s stronger xG numbers to test Chadi Riad and the Palace back line. |
| AFC Bournemouth | Crystal Palace | Alex Scott against Daichi Kamada could shape the midfield battle, with both sides needing control in central areas. |
| AFC Bournemouth | Crystal Palace | Evanilson is key for AFC Bournemouth because he is the main attacking reference in a side that has created the better chances. |
| AFC Bournemouth | Crystal Palace | Brennan Johnson is key for Crystal Palace because he offers their clearest attacking threat in a front line that needs more end product. |
FAQs
For the best Premier League outright predictions, explore our guide.
Odds and market details are accurate as of the time of publication.
