Nobody saw this coming.
Just five games into the new season and with the international break ongoing, Manchester City have been found guilty of over 100 charges relating to breaches of Premier League financial rules between the 2009-10 and 2017-18 seasons. There’s uproar over the alleged £900m worth of ‘sham’ contracts involved in the scandal, making for one of the league’s biggest ever scandals. Until recently, many people had completely forgotten the case was even ongoing, as the assumption was that City were going to beat the allegations, but it’s all come crashing down for the Sky Blues and whispers of a relegation punishment are starting to get louder.
Following a £440m spending spree in the summer and the appointment of new boss Enzo Maresca, City were expected to come fighting back this season and launch yet another title race against Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal. As it stands, City are technically top of the table after a blistering start to the season, yet it could all come crashing down over the coming weeks. These are the latest City relegation odds and what the rest of the league can expect to happen.
Man City 9/4 to Get Relegated Ahead of Potentially Record-Breaking Points Deduction
✔ Coventry 1/2
✔ Hull 8/13
✔ Ipswich 6/5
✔ Crystal Palace 7/4
✔ Manchester City 9/4
Now that the Premier League has officially confirmed Manchester City’s guilty verdict, the Sky Blues have unexpectedly been added to the list of the league’s relegation favourites.
As it stands, City sit at 9/4 odds, an implied probability of around 30%. So, City aren’t outright favourites to go down and plenty of bookies are allowing leeway in case the club is able to get away with just a light punishment. However, these are the strongest relegation odds to have been attached to City since the charges were first brought forward in 2023 and owner Sheikh Mansour will no doubt be nervous.
Potential punishments for City include a heavy fine, transfer ban, severe points deduction, and even outright exclusion from ever playing in the Premier League again. Some of the OddsPlays betting software sites can help bettors track changing odds and identify potential value as the situation develops, as City’s relegation odds are expected to fluctuate even after the international break wraps up.
If City were to be relegated, a player exodus would almost certainly follow. However, if it’s only a points deduction, it would give the club time to potentially escape relegation and once again reset over the summer. The outcomes here are so varied that it’s a tough one to call, although what can be said for certain is that City will receive some form of punishment this time.
City Expected to Appeal Verdict
Surprisingly, the Man City hierarchy has yet to appeal the guilty verdict and only have until Friday, 2 October to do this.
The overriding expectation is that they will, indeed, appeal the charges, although some expect them to opt against this and instead take proceedings to the High Court, where the club perhaps believes it has a better chance.
That would potentially be a process upwards of 18 months, delaying City’s potential relegation and punishment, which is again why many bookies are reluctant to slash their odds any further for the time being.
Arsenal Looking At Back-to-Back Titles
All of this is music to the ears of Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, who are fresh from winning the club’s first league title since the Invincibles era last season. Outside of Man City, there aren’t any other major title contenders in the league, so a points deduction would effectively hand the title to the Gunners on a plate. Arteta, who himself was assistant manager at City for several years, has yet to publicly respond to City’s guilty verdict.
What Comes Next for City
According to the Premier League’s chief executive, City “systematically” broke the rules and inflated its revenue by more than $1 billion through “sham” deals.
It’s left the club in a mess that even top lawyers could struggle to solve for them this time around and punishments may turn out to be the biggest ever handed out to a Premier League club.
Interestingly, the Premier League, which is widely regarded as the best in all of European football, will want to protect its interests and image, so there’s also speculation that potential punishments could be toned down in order to prevent the past decade and a half of Premier League football being thrown into question.
All of this will continue to unravel over the coming months and punters should keep their eyes locked on changing City relegation odds, as they could suddenly drop further if a points deduction is confirmed to be on the table.
