Aston Villa host Liverpool at Villa Park on Friday night in Round 37 of the Premier League, with both sides arriving after mixed recent runs and little room for drift this late in the campaign.
The fixture carries extra weight because it brings together two teams whose form has wobbled at different points, while the recent head-to-head record suggests Liverpool have had the edge without making the contest one-sided.
Look at our Data and Stats for Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Why it matters
For Aston Villa, this is a chance to reset after a patchy spell that has included narrow defeats and a draw at Burnley. With the season entering its final stretch, a home performance against one of the league’s biggest sides would offer a timely statement and some momentum to finish on.
Liverpool, meanwhile, are trying to respond after a draw with Chelsea and a defeat at Manchester United interrupted a stronger run. A result at Villa Park would help them reassert control after a few uneven displays and keep their campaign moving in the right direction.
Form picture
Aston Villa’s league form has been inconsistent, with just one win in their last five. The 4-3 victory over Sunderland showed their attacking threat, but the defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham, plus the draw at Burnley, underline how often they have been left chasing games.
Their wider recent record is similar, with a strong Europa League win over Nottingham Forest sitting alongside another defeat to the same opponent and a loss to Tottenham. That mix points to a side capable of producing a big performance, but not yet finding the consistency to back it up.
Liverpool’s league form has been steadier overall, even if the last two results have checked their momentum. Wins over Crystal Palace, Everton and Fulham came before the draw with Chelsea and the setback at Manchester United, suggesting a team that has generally been more reliable in recent weeks.
Across all competitions, Liverpool’s results still show more control than Villa’s, but the defeat to Paris Saint Germain and the recent league slip at Old Trafford hint at a side that can be exposed when the tempo rises. They arrive with more stability than Villa, but not complete certainty.
Key storyline
The main tactical question is whether Villa can turn this into a more open, front-foot contest at home or whether Liverpool’s structure and control in midfield will slow the game down. Villa have shown they can score, but they have also been vulnerable when matches become stretched.
Liverpool’s likely shape suggests they will try to manage possession through Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai and Ryan Gravenberch, while using the pace and movement around Cody Gakpo to unsettle Villa’s back line. Villa, by contrast, will look to use Morgan Rogers, Ross Barkley and Ollie Watkins to attack quickly and make the most of transitions.
Team news
Aston Villa are without Amadou Onana because of calf problems, which removes an option in midfield and may leave them leaning more heavily on John McGinn, Ross Barkley and Youri Tielemans in the centre of the pitch. Their recent lineups suggest a familiar 4-2-3-1 base, with Emiliano Martínez behind a back four and Ollie Watkins leading the line.
That shape gives Villa a clear attacking reference, but the absence of Onana may reduce their physical presence and ball-winning options in midfield. It also increases the importance of Morgan Rogers and Victor Lindelöf in helping Villa stay connected between the lines and avoid being overrun.
Liverpool’s only listed injury is Florian Wirtz, who is out with stomach problems, and that removes a creative option from their attacking pool. Their recent selections suggest some flexibility, but the predicted XI points towards a 4-2-3-1 with Giorgi Mamardashvili in goal and Cody Gakpo as the central forward.
The expected Liverpool side also indicates a balance between control and width, with Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez likely to provide energy from the flanks. With Wirtz unavailable, the burden on Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister to supply the final pass becomes even greater.
Tactical battle
The key area is likely to be midfield, where Villa’s compactness will be tested by Liverpool’s ability to circulate the ball and pin them back. If Villa cannot stop Liverpool settling into rhythm, the visitors may be able to dictate territory for long spells.
At the other end, Liverpool will need to manage Villa’s direct running and the movement around Watkins, especially if the home side can turn the game into a series of quick attacks. The first goal may shape the whole evening, because both teams have shown they can look far more dangerous when the match opens up.
Recent meetings
Liverpool have had the better of this fixture recently, winning 2-0 in November 2025 and again in November 2024, while the 2-2 draw at Villa Park in February 2025 showed Villa can compete at home. The broader pattern still favours Liverpool, but Villa have at least made the contest more competitive in front of their own supporters.
Reporter’s view
This feels like a match where Liverpool’s greater recent stability should give them the edge, but Villa’s home setting and attacking moments mean it is unlikely to be straightforward. If Villa start well and keep the game open, they have enough threat to make Liverpool uncomfortable.
Even so, the balance of form and the recent head-to-head record point towards Liverpool being the more controlled side over 90 minutes. Villa may create chances, but Liverpool look better placed to manage the key moments and leave with a result.
Prediction
Liverpool to edge a competitive contest at Villa Park, with Villa likely to make it a lively and open evening.
