The World Cup kicks off on June 11 with three host countries. Canada, Mexico, and the US are co-hosting the tournament, and it’s the biggest in the sport’s long history. There will be 48 teams and 104 matches. The opening match will be played on June 11 at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, while the final is set for MetLife Stadium on July 19.
The three host countries aren’t just hosts or even spectators. They’re participants. Here’s how the teams expected to perform in this high-profile global tournament, and where they stand heading into group play based on prediction market probabilities.
High Expectations for USMNT Over Paraguay
The US Men’s National Team is in group D, playing the following opponents.
- Paraguay (June 12, LA)
- Australia (June 19, Seattle)
- Turkey (June 25, LA)
The US has the highest FIFA ranking of the group at 16, with Turkey (22), Australia (27), and Paraguay (40) following.
In 2022, the US made it to the round of 16, but the team has not made it further than that since 2022. The pressure is on, and the players know it.
Key player and team highlights:
- Chris Richards is a legitimate injury concern to watch.
- Christian Pulisic comes to the World Cup after a strong club season.
- Coach Maricio Pochettino is confident he’ll end the goal drought at the World Cup.
Prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket have USMNT at 40% probability of winning Group D, but only a 1.6% probability of winning the World Cup.
Mexico Favored to Advance Out of Group A
Mexico opens the World Cup on June 11 on their home turf: Estadio Azteca. They’re in Group A.
- South Africa (June 11, Mexico City)
- South Korea (June 18, Zapopan)
- Czechia (June 24, Mexico City)
The co-hosting team is widely favored in Group A, and they’re largely expected to advance from the knockouts. Their history haunts them, though. The ‘Curse of the 5th Game” lingers. Mexico was eliminated from the Round of 16 in seven straight World Cups from 1994 to 2018. In 2022, the turn was even worse as Mexico failed to advance from the group stage.
Mexico is riding higher on prediction markets than their US counterparts, with a 57% chance of advancing, but still a 1.9% of making it to the finals and winning.
Canada Most Likely To Finish in Round of 32
Canada enters the 2026 World Cup as the number two team in Group B, playing the following countries.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina (June 12, Toronto)
- Qatar (June 18, Vancouver)
- Switzerland (June 24, Vancouver)
The only host team to be seeded second by rankings in its Group, Canada has a slight uphill battle with Switzerland in the mix. Plus, Canada’s history in the World Cup is lackluster. The country has never won a match in the tournament, nor have they escaped group play.
Star player Alphonos Davies injured his hamstring in May. He will be playing in the World Cup, per reporting from the NYTimes. He could be a make-or-break factor for Canada. If Davies plays, a relatively weak Group and home-pitch advantage could play in Canada’s favor.
Prediction markets have opened the door to trading across nearly any and all possibilities to happen and are competing with World Cup betting promos.
The group stage happens soon, and all three host countries have plenty of history and plenty of hopes heading into the 2026 World Cup.
Each team has a reasonable and achievable path out of the knockout round, but who knows what’ll happen from there.