Explore My Football Facts' detailed preview for Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. Stats, odds, predictions, and lineups for the 15:00 BST match.
Fixture Information
| Fixture | Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|
| Competition | Premier League |
| Date | Monday, 04 May 2026 |
| Kick-off | 15:00 BST |
| Venue | Stamford Bridge |
Match Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Prediction Stats
Fulltime Result Probability
Both Teams To Score Probability
Over/Under 2.5 Probability
xG Stats & Match Facts
| Chelsea | Metric | Nottingham Forest | What it suggests |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | Expected Goals (xG) | 2.02 | Chelsea have the edge on this metric. |
| 2.06 | Expected Goals on Target (xGoT) | 2.34 | Nottingham Forest have created the better quality shots on target. |
| 1.72 | Expected Points (xPTS) | 1.09 | Chelsea are rated stronger by expected points. |
| 0.79 | Expected Goals Penalties (xGP) | 0.79 | Very little separates the teams on this metric. |
| 0.03 | Expected Goals Free Kicks (xGFK) | 0.00 | Chelsea have the stronger set-piece xG number. |
| 0.22 | Expected Goals Corners (xGC) | 0.05 | Chelsea have the stronger set-piece xG number. |
| 1.81 | Expected Goals Non Penalty Goals (npxG) | 1.23 | Chelsea have the edge on this metric. |
| 1.16 | Expected Goals Set Play (xGSP) | 0.84 | Chelsea have the stronger set-piece xG number. |
| 1.43 | Expected Goals Open Play (xGOP) | 1.18 | Chelsea carry the bigger open-play threat. |
| 2.02 | Expected Goals Against (xGA) | 2.60 | Chelsea have the stronger defensive xG profile here. |
Last 5 Meetings
| League | Date | Match | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 04 May 2026 |  Chelsea vs  Nottingham Forest |
1 – 3 | Stamford Bridge |
| Premier League | 18 Oct 2025 | Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea |
0 – 3 | The City Ground |
| Premier League | 25 May 2025 | Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea |
0 – 1 | The City Ground |
| Premier League | 06 Oct 2024 | Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest |
1 – 1 | Stamford Bridge |
| Premier League | 11 May 2024 | Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea |
2 – 3 | The City Ground |
Chelsea’s numbers suggest they can create chances, with 2.60 xG and 1.72 xPTS, but their recent league run has been poor and they have lost five in a row. Nottingham Forest arrive with better results and a recent 3-1 win in this fixture, yet their xGA of 2.60 shows they can still be opened up. Stamford Bridge should give Chelsea a platform, and the data points to a game where both sides can find moments rather than a controlled contest.
Forest’s 4-4-2 has already worked well against Chelsea, but Chelsea’s stronger attacking metrics and home advantage make them the side more likely to edge it if they convert chances. Forest’s xGoT of 2.34 is slightly better than Chelsea’s 2.06, so they should threaten too, especially through direct play and the two-man attack. Match Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Form Guide & Team Overview
Chelsea
Chelsea come into this match on a five-game losing run in the league, with defeats to Nottingham Forest, Brighton & Hove Albion, Manchester United, Manchester City and Everton. The most recent home league results have also been poor, with losses to Nottingham Forest, Manchester United and Manchester City all coming at Stamford Bridge.
In all competitions, Chelsea’s only win in the supplied run was a 1-0 FA Cup victory over Leeds United, which sits between league defeats. That leaves the overall picture as one of low momentum, despite the underlying xG numbers suggesting they have still been generating chances.
Chelsea Last 5 Results
| League | Date | Match | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 4 May 2026 | Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest |
1 – 3 | L | Stamford Bridge |
| Premier League | 21 Apr 2026 |  Brighton & Hove Albion vs Chelsea |
3 – 0 | L | The American Express Community Stadium |
| Premier League | 18 Apr 2026 | Chelsea vs  Manchester United |
0 – 1 | L | Stamford Bridge |
| Premier League | 12 Apr 2026 | Chelsea vs  Manchester City |
0 – 3 | L | Stamford Bridge |
| Premier League | 21 Mar 2026 |  Everton vs Chelsea |
3 – 0 | L | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest’s league form is stronger, with wins over Chelsea, Sunderland, Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur, plus a draw with Aston Villa in the supplied run. Their only league defeat in the recent results table is not shown, which underlines a positive sequence of results.
In all competitions, Forest’s only loss in the supplied run was a 0-4 defeat to Aston Villa in the Europa League. Even with that setback, the recent pattern is still built around wins, and the 3-1 victory at Chelsea stands out as the clearest reference point for this fixture.
Nottingham Forest Last 5 Results
| League | Date | Match | Score | Result | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 4 May 2026 | Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest |
1 – 3 | W | Stamford Bridge |
| Premier League | 24 Apr 2026 |  Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest |
0 – 5 | W | Stadium of Light |
| Premier League | 19 Apr 2026 | Nottingham Forest vs  Burnley |
4 – 1 | W | The City Ground |
| Premier League | 12 Apr 2026 | Nottingham Forest vs  Aston Villa |
1 – 1 | D | The City Ground |
| Premier League | 22 Mar 2026 |  Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest |
0 – 3 | W | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Team News & Injury Report
Chelsea
- Alejandro Garnacho (Unknown Injury)
- Pedro Neto (Unknown Injury)
Nottingham Forest
- Zach Abbott (Concussion)
Lineups & Tactical Setup
Chelsea (4-2-3-1)
Predicted lineup: Robert Sánchez (Goalkeeper), Malo Gusto (Defender), Marc Cucurella (Defender), Tosin Adarabioyo (Defender), Trevoh Chalobah (Defender), Cole Palmer (Midfielder), Enzo Fernández (Midfielder), Jesse Derry (Midfielder), Moisés Caicedo (Midfielder), Roméo Lavia (Midfielder), João Pedro (Attacker)
Chelsea’s predicted 4-2-3-1 gives them a solid base with two central midfielders protecting the back four and helping them build through the middle. With Cole Palmer and João Pedro in advanced roles, they should have enough quality between the lines to test Forest’s shape and create chances in open play.
Nottingham Forest (4-4-2)
Predicted lineup: Matz Sels (Goalkeeper), Jair Cunha (Defender), Luca Netz (Defender), Morato (Defender), TBC (Defender), Dilane Bakwa (Midfielder), James McAtee (Midfielder), Nicolás Domínguez (Midfielder), Ryan Yates (Midfielder), Igor Jesus (Attacker), Taiwo Awoniyi (Attacker)
Nottingham Forest’s predicted 4-4-2 should keep them compact in midfield while giving them two forwards to stretch Chelsea’s defence. That shape also suits quick transitions, with Dilane Bakwa and the central midfielders able to support Igor Jesus and Taiwo Awoniyi early.
Key Battles & Players to Watch
| Chelsea | Nottingham Forest | Key Battle Overview |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | Nottingham Forest | João Pedro against Jair Cunha could be decisive if Chelsea can get their forward receiving between the lines and turning towards goal. |
| Chelsea | Nottingham Forest | Cole Palmer against Dilane Bakwa is a key midfield-to-wide duel, with Palmer’s creativity likely central to Chelsea’s chance creation. |
| Chelsea | Nottingham Forest | João Pedro is key for Chelsea because the predicted shape puts him at the sharp end of their attack and the xG data suggests they can create enough to feed him. |
| Chelsea | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus is key for Nottingham Forest because he gives them a direct outlet in a 4-4-2 that has already delivered goals in recent results. |
FAQs
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Odds and market details are accurate as of the time of publication.
