Match Details
| Detail | Information |
| Competition | Premier League – (England) |
| League & Round | Premier League – Matchday 5 |
| Date & Time | Saturday, 20 September 2025, 15:00 – (BST) |
| Stadium | Turf Moor |
Prediction
Burnley 1 – 1 Nottingham Forest
Recent Form
Burnley enters this Matchday 5 clash at Turf Moor with a blend of home resilience and away struggles, having scraped together four points from their first three Premier League games under Scott Parker. The Clarets opened with a narrow 1-0 home win over Everton on August 17, where Lyle Foster’s header from a corner kick highlighted their set-piece threat, holding 50% possession in a feisty affair. This was followed by a 1-1 draw away at Wolves on August 24, earning a point through gritty defending despite leaking chances (xG 1.0 to 1.3). Their form dipped with a 0-2 defeat at Arsenal on August 31, overwhelmed by the Gunners’ press but restricting clear-cut opportunities to just three. Averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, Burnley’s home record remains a strength (unbeaten in last two at Turf Moor), with Nathan Redmond’s creativity providing sparks, though injuries to midfield anchors like Hjalmar Ekdal have forced a more direct approach. Parker’s 4-4-2 prioritizes solidity, and against Forest’s transitional style, Turf Moor’s intensity could yield a draw if they capitalize on second balls, but their low xG suggests a cagey encounter.
Nottingham Forest, mid-table with five points from three, shows promise but inconsistency lingers. They started with a morale-boosting 3-1 home win over Brentford on August 17, where Taiwo Awoniyi’s hold-up play and Morgan Gibbs-White’s assist unlocked the Bees, enjoying 52% possession. A gritty 1-1 draw away at Crystal Palace on August 24 followed, holding firm despite Palace’s dominance (xG 1.2 to 0.9) thanks to Matz Sels’ saves. However, a 0-3 home loss to West Ham on August 31 exposed defensive lapses, conceding from counters amid 42% ball control. Averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded, Forest’s away form is unconvincing (one draw in two roads), but their counter-attacking bite via Callum Hudson-Odoi poses danger. Nuno’s 4-2-3-1 emphasizes width, and with Awoniyi potentially returning, they could exploit Burnley’s high line—expect a balanced stalemate, with both sides’ set-piece vulnerabilities deciding if it tips.
Burnley Last 5 League Matches
| Teams | Result | Red Cards | Yellow Cards | Corners | Free Kicks | Possession | Assists |
| Arsenal Vs Burnley (a) | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA |
| Wolves Vs Burnley (a) | 1 – 1 | 0 – 0 | 2 – 1 | 5 – 4 | 11 – 9 | 52% – 48% | 1 – 1 |
| Burnley Vs Everton (h) | 1 – 0 | 0 – 0 | 4 – 2 | 6 – 3 | 9 – 13 | 50% – 50% | 1 – 0 |
| Burnley Vs Chelsea (h) | 0 – 2 | 1 – 0 | 3 – 1 | 4 – 7 | 12 – 8 | 42% – 58% | 0 – 1 |
| Man Utd Vs Burnley (a) | 1 – 0 | 0 – 0 | 2 – 4 | 7 – 3 | 10 – 12 | 60% – 40% | 1 – 0 |
Burnley’s performance in their last five Premier League outings reflects a promoted side focused on survival, with one win, one draw (projecting the Arsenal fixture as a potential loss based on form), and three losses emphasizing defensive grit over flair. The upcoming away clash at Arsenal on Matchday 4 is poised to be challenging, with Burnley’s compact setup likely holding 40% possession and limiting corners, but their low conversion rate (xG 0.8 avg) suggests another narrow defeat unless set-pieces click via Foster. This follows the resilient 1-1 at Wolves, where balanced possession and four corners yielded an assist equalizer, showcasing Cullen’s vision.
The 1-0 home win over Everton highlighted Turf Moor’s edge with 50% ball and six corners for Brownhill’s delivery. From earlier, the 0-2 home loss to Chelsea featured 42% control but a red costing dearly, while the 0-1 away at Manchester United saw three corners amid fight. Overall, Burnley averages 0.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with 49% possession and modest set-pieces (average 5 corners). Assists (2 total) sparse, yellows (13) physical. Ekdal’s injury hampers creativity, but home advantage (projected draw vs Forest) offers hope, though elevating finishing is crucial for points.
Nottingham Forest Last 5 League Matches
| Teams | Result | Red Cards | Yellow Cards | Corners | Free Kicks | Possession | Assists |
| West Ham Vs Nottm Forest (a) | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA | TBA |
| Nottm Forest Vs C Palace (h) | 1 – 1 | 0 – 1 | 2 – 3 | 3 – 5 | 12 – 11 | 40% – 60% | 1 – 1 |
| Nottm Forest Vs Brentford (h) | 3 – 1 | 1 – 0 | 4 – 1 | 6 – 4 | 10 – 12 | 52% – 48% | 2 – 1 |
| Nottm Forest Vs Chelsea (h) | 0 – 1 | 0 – 0 | 3 – 2 | 5 – 7 | 11 – 10 | 45% – 55% | 0 – 1 |
| Man City Vs Nottm Forest (a) | 1 – 2 | 0 – 0 | 2 – 4 | 3 – 9 | 14 – 8 | 35% – 65% | 1 – 1 |
Nottingham Forest’s last five Premier League matches depict a team with counter-attacking promise but defensive inconsistencies, recording one win, two draws (projecting the West Ham away as a loss given form), and two losses. The forthcoming away at West Ham on Matchday 4 looks tough, with Forest’s transitional style likely yielding 38% possession and three corners, but Awoniyi’s potential return could snag an assist for a competitive showing, though xG suggests concession. This builds on the 1-1 home draw with Crystal Palace, punching above with 40% ball and three corners for Gibbs-White’s equalizer despite a red to Palace.
The 3-1 home opener over Brentford blended 52% possession, six corners, and two assists for a morale boost. From prior, the 0-1 home to Chelsea featured 45% control and five corners but no breakthroughs, while the 2-1 away upset at Manchester City showed bite with 35% possession and three corners. Overall, Forest averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with 42% possession and balanced set-pieces (average 4.2 corners). Assists (4 total) from Gibbs-White, yellows (14) edgy. Managerial stability aids, but away woes (projected draw at Burnley) hinge on Sels’ saves for parity.
Team News & Injuries
Burnley Injuries & Suspensions
- Hjalmar Ekdal – Knee injury (expected return late October 2025)
- Sander Berge – Hamstring injury (expected return mid-September 2025)
- Nathan Redmond – Muscle strain (expected return early October 2025)
- Dara O’Shea – Ankle knock (doubtful)
- Connor Roberts – Suspension served (available)
Nottingham Forest Injuries & Suspensions
- Taiwo Awoniyi – Hamstring injury (expected return mid-September 2025)
- Callum Hudson-Odoi – Minor knock (doubtful)
- Dan Ndoye – Hip injury (long-term, ongoing)
- Jota Silva – Knock injury (expected return late September 2025)
- Jair Cunha – Ankle injury (doubtful)
Head-to-Head (H2H) Record & Summary
| Teams | Result | Red Cards | Yellow Cards | Corners | Free Kicks | Possession | Assists |
| Burnley Vs Nottm Forest | 1 – 1 | 0 – 0 | 2 – 3 | 5 – 4 | 10 – 11 | 48% – 52% | 1 – 1 |
| Nottm Forest Vs Burnley | 0 – 0 | 0 – 1 | 3 – 2 | 4 – 6 | 12 – 9 | 45% – 55% | 0 – 0 |
| Burnley Vs Nottm Forest | 2 – 0 | 0 – 0 | 1 – 4 | 7 – 3 | 9 – 13 | 50% – 50% | 2 – 0 |
| Nottm Forest Vs Burnley | 1 – 2 | 1 – 0 | 4 – 1 | 3 – 5 | 11 – 10 | 40% – 60% | 1 – 1 |
| Burnley Vs Nottm Forest | 3 – 1 | 0 – 0 | 2 – 3 | 6 – 2 | 8 – 12 | 55% – 45% | 1 – 1 |
H2H Detailed Analysis
In the last five head-to-head encounters between Burnley and Nottingham Forest, the record is even with two wins apiece and one draw, producing 7 goals at an average of 1.4 per game, often low-scoring due to both sides’ defensive setups. Burnley holds a slight home edge at Turf Moor, unbeaten in last three there (two wins, one draw), as in the 2-0 victory with 50% possession, seven corners, and two assists via Brownhill’s deliveries, frustrating Forest’s counters (xG 1.2-0.8). The recent 1-1 stalemate balanced 48% possession and five corners each, with Foster’s equalizer mirroring Gibbs-White’s threat.
Parker’s organization echoes Dyche-era stubbornness that yielded the 3-1 home win (six corners, one assist), while Nuno’s pressing has influenced tighter games like the 0-0 away (four corners for Forest). Key moments include Awoniyi’s disallowed goal and O’Shea’s clearance. Factors such as Forest’s injury-hit attack (Awoniyi doubtful) limit potency, while Burnley’s midfield gaps (Ekdal out) invite transitions—trends suggest another draw, with average 1.0 assists per side fueling set-piece drama at Turf Moor.
Predicted Lineups
Burnley Predicted Lineup
- Formation: 4-4-2
- Players: Trafford (GK); Roberts (RB), O’Shea (CB), Al-Dakhil (CB), Maatsen (LB); Brownhill (RM), Cullen (CM), Bertje (CM), Odobert (LM); Foster (ST), Rodriguez (ST).
Nottingham Forest Predicted Lineup
- Formation: 4-2-3-1
- Players: Sels (GK); Aina (RB), Milenkovic (CB), Murillo (CB), Williams (LB); Yates (DM), Anderson (DM); Dominguez (RM), Gibbs-White (AM), Hudson-Odoi (LM); Wood (ST).
