By Martin Graham
Manchester City secured a dramatic win over Aston Villa on Tuesday, climbing into third place in the Premier League table. Matheus Nunes scored deep into stoppage time to give Pep Guardiola’s side the edge, overtaking Nottingham Forest, who had also claimed a vital away win against Tottenham Hotspur the day before.
Just four points separate the third and seventh positions, with the battle for European qualification heating up. Nottingham Forest currently sit fourth, with Aston Villa just behind in seventh. Forest, who last played in the continent’s top club tournament in 1980 after twice lifting the European Cup, are aiming to return to the Champions League for the first time in over four decades.
As it stands, the Premier League is guaranteed at least five slots in the Champions League for the upcoming campaign, with a minimum of eight teams across all three UEFA competitions expected to qualify from England. This number could even rise to 11 under specific scenarios. As a result, even clubs as far down as 12th-placed Crystal Palace still have a chance to reach Europe.
Several of the clubs chasing European places face difficult run-ins. Liverpool must take on Tottenham, Arsenal, and Chelsea, while Arsenal will host Palace, Bournemouth, and Newcastle, in addition to a key visit to Anfield. Newcastle themselves finish the season with games against Ipswich, Brighton, Chelsea, and Arsenal.
Forest’s last five matches include home ties with Brentford, Leicester, and Chelsea, as well as away fixtures at Crystal Palace and West Ham. Manchester City, meanwhile, will look to hold their position with matches remaining against Wolves, Southampton, Bournemouth, and Fulham.
Other contenders like Chelsea, Aston Villa, Brighton, and Fulham also face testing schedules. Chelsea’s list includes four sides currently in the European hunt, while Aston Villa will visit Manchester United and host Tottenham. Brighton still has games against Newcastle, Liverpool, and Tottenham ahead.
Due to England’s strong ranking in UEFA’s coefficient system, at least five clubs from the Premier League will qualify for the Champions League, with the potential to increase. That number could rise to six if Arsenal wins this season’s Champions League while finishing outside the top four, or even to seven if they do so and Manchester United or Tottenham also lift the Europa League.
In terms of the Europa League, up to three Premier League clubs could be included. Typically, the sixth-placed team and the FA Cup winners will take two spots. If the FA Cup winner has already qualified for Europe, their place goes to the next best-placed club that hasn’t. A third berth could open if Chelsea secure the Conference League title but don’t make the top five.
One spot in the Conference League will be allocated to a Premier League club. At the moment, that belongs to Newcastle, winners of the Carabao Cup. If Newcastle secures a place in either the Champions League or the Europa League, that spot will then fall to another team. Depending on results across Europe and in the domestic cups, even a ninth or 10th-place finish might be enough to earn a European ticket.
