Manchester City star Erling Braut Haaland has been tipped to win the Premier League Golden Boot award for the third time in four years this season.
According to Spreadex Sports, the Norwegian international striker is the betting favourite to win the Golden Boot and is on course to score between 28.5 and 30.5 league goals for City.
That prediction puts Haaland a long way clear of his rivals. Read on as we assess the predictions, before determining whether he will get the job done.
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Haaland fancied to bag another Golden Boot
Spreadex have recently updated their season player goals and assists predictions, and they undoubtedly paint a positive picture for Haaland.
Based on the most likely goalscorers for the so-called ‘Big Six’ clubs, he is forecast to finish at least 13 goals clear of the chasing pack. The predictions are as follows:
| PLAYER | TEAM | PREDICTED GOALS |
| Erling Braut Haaland | Manchester City | 28.5 – 30.5 |
| Viktor Gyokeres | Arsenal | 15.5 – 17 |
| Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 12.5 – 14 |
| Alexander Isak | Liverpool | 12.5 – 14 |
| Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | 12 – 13.5 |
| Joao Pedro | Chelsea | 11.5 – 13 |
| Richarlison | Tottenham Hotspur | 9.5 – 10.5 |
| Bruno Fernandes | Manchester United | 9.25 – 10.25 |
| Benjamin Sesko | Manchester United | 9.25 – 10.25 |
| Enzo Fernandez | Chelsea | 9.25 – 10.25 |
| Phil Foden | Manchester City | 8 – 9 |
| Brennan Johnson | Tottenham Hotspur | 6.5 – 7.25 |
While making football predictions is not an exact science, Haaland looks a good bet to win the Golden Boot after making a stellar start to the season.
He has bagged nine goals in seven league appearances to establish a three-goal lead over Bournemouth star Antoine Semenyo.
Given that the Cherries forward is not expected to continue scoring at the same rate, the biggest threat to Haaland will come from elsewhere.
The past ten seasons highlight that playing for one of the top teams generally gives players a much better chance of winning the Golden Boot.
Jamie Vardy is the only player to buck that trend having claimed the prize by netting 23 league goals for Leicester City during the 2019/20 season. Here is the full list of winners during that timeframe:
| SEASON | PLAYER | TEAM | GOALS |
| 2024/25 | Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 29 |
| 2023/24 | Erling Braut Haaland | Manchester City | 27 |
| 2022/23 | Erling Braut Haaland | Manchester City | 36 |
| 2021/22 | Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 23 |
| Heung-min Son | Tottenham Hotspur | 23 | |
| 2020/21 | Harry Kane | Tottenham Hotspur | 23 |
| 2019/20 | Jamie Vardy | Leicester City | 23 |
| 2018/19 | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | Arsenal | 22 |
| Sadio Mane | Liverpool | 22 | |
| Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 22 | |
| 2017/18 | Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 32 |
| 2016/17 | Harry Kane | Tottenham Hotspur | 29 |
| 2015/16 | Harry Kane | Tottenham Hotspur | 25 |
While four-time Golden Boot winner Mohamed Salah is a player to be feared in the goalscoring stakes, circumstances could conspire against him this season.
Liverpool added Alexander Isak and Hugo Ekitike to their squad this summer and they are guaranteed to have an impact on Salah’s goals output.
He is also scheduled to represent Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations, which will further dent his chances of retaining the Golden Boot.
Arsenal’s Viktor Gyokeres stands out as the player most likely to beat Haaland this season, despite being tipped to finish a long way behind him.
A forecast of 15.5 to 17 goals looks conservative for a player who averaged almost a goal per game for Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga.
However, if Haaland steers clear of injury, he is impossible to oppose in the race to win the 2025/26 Golden Boot.
Please remember spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses larger than your initial stake/deposit. They may not be suitable for everyone so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved. GambleAware.org. 18+
