By Jonathan Lewis | 25th MAY 2021
Statistical analysis or data-driven speculation is what separates sports betting from other forms of gambling. Sure, luck always plays a role in sports matches, but other luck-based games have set odds, whereas here, they vary based on the match and competitors. The problem is that there is a lot of data available and a lot of elements that are not factored in that data, which means that simply looking at the odds or quotes for specific outcomes is not enough. These things are there to make it easier for casual users or bettors to participate, while experienced players use a more in-depth approach to football betting.
As stated, the statistical analysis does not incorporate all of the important factors for a team to win a match. One recent example is the COVID-19 outbreak that also affected the odds, given how some coaches got down with the virus. This just means that examining the odds is not enough if you wish to make an educated guess; you must also examine some of the variables that can tip the scale in another direction. Of course, there is no strong numeric value attached to these factors, so it will come down to your gut feeling. However, there are other statistics that you can consider that can help you get a better perspective on the outcome.
One important aspect of every game and its outcome is the motivation of the team. Even if you don’t know the players personally, you can still determine that by going over their prior matches and how they performed. For example, you can go over what are legal in New Jersey apps or platforms for sports betting and see if they also offer the team’s history analytics. If the team had a lousy history score, and if the match’s outcome does not determine if they qualify further, you can assume they are not highly motivated to win. On the other hand, if they have a good score, or if the match’s outcome has higher stakes for them than the opponent, then their motivation for winning is likely higher.
Almost every team has its rival or arch-nemesis, which means that the stadium will be filled with fans on both sides. This is important because having a home terrain advantage often does not apply in this case. Both teams are equally supported and willing to go the extra mile if they can satisfy their devoted fans. So, even if they did not have the same score throughout the season, the presented odds would not accurately reflect the potential winner.
You would be surprised just how much is invested in data analysis for football betting. This is a multi-billion dollar industry, and things that motivate users to stay engaged and place their bets are essential business assets. This is why every team has its so-called detailed stats. These detail the strength of their offence, defence, teamwork, and even whether they are more aggressive during the first or second half.
These things might not share enough insights when it comes to winning or losing, but they are incredibly useful when you bet on several scored goals or time. If both teams have a good defence, then the chances are that there won’t be more than two goals, for example. The same goes for time intervals; if a team relies on more aggressive plays during the first 15 minutes of the match, they will likely score first.
Hopefully, this gave you a better idea of using advanced statistical analysis to determine football game outcomes. Relying on odds alone is rarely a winning strategy, and it only makes sports betting look more like regular gambling. By examining all of the other factors incorporated in the analysis and considering factors that aren’t included, you significantly improve the odds in your favour.
Jonathan Lewis is an MFF sports writer